
Great! More Gazorpazorpfield Mondays
Alright alright settle down you bunch of Summer's. So Israel and Iran are at it again huh? This time Israel did a little 'oopsie' on Iran's nuclear whatnot and naturally oil prices went bonkers. We're talking a 14% jump! But don't go investing all your schmeckles just yet because the so called experts – and you know how I feel about experts; 99% of them couldn't invent post toast without my help! – they're saying it's all just hot air unless someone actually blows up some oil wells.
Fear is the Mind Killer (and the Wallet Killer Too)
Apparently the oil price spike is all in our heads. That's what Wells Fargo is saying anyway. Some guy named Roger Read is telling his clients that we need actual physical barrels of oil to disappear before things get real. It's like needing to see a Meeseeks box to believe in alternate realities – predictable Jerry predictable.
Risk Premium: The Price of Being Paranoid
UBS is chiming in too with some bloke named Mark Haefele saying we're all just paying extra for the 'what if' scenario. I swear humans will find a way to monetize paranoia. Anyway he says if there are no actual explosions of oil prices should calm down. You know like when Morty calms down after seeing a Cronenberg monster... mostly.
OPEC+ and Trump's Tariffs: A Blast From The Past
Remember a couple of months ago when oil was cheaper than a Szechuan sauce less McNugget? Thanks OPEC+ and Trump's tariffs! But hey at least we didn't have to worry about global thermonuclear war. Now with Israel and Iran playing laser tag things are getting a little less predictable.
Goldman Sachs or Nostradamus in a Suit?
Goldman Sachs is still sticking to their $56/barrel Brent forecast for 2026. They're assuming no major boom booms in the Middle East. Citi is agreeing that Iran won't likely target its neighbors energy supplies due to improved relations. As if those things are real. But they also warn that if things go south (and let's be honest when do they not?) prices could skyrocket. Brent could hit $90 if Israel gets all stabby with Iran's infrastructure. $100+ if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. Personally I'm thinking we should all just move to a dimension where oil is made of sunshine and rainbows.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint of Doom
Turns out one fifth of the world's oil goes through this Strait of Hormuz place. Some expert named Helima Croft says it'd be tough for Iran to shut it down because the US Fifth Fleet is hanging out nearby. But she also says they could mine the place or blow up tankers. Because why not? John Kilduff says this always happens oil prices go up when Iran does something stupid then everyone calms down. Honestly can't we all just get along? Nah probably not. That's the human condition for you! Get Schwifty!
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