Tariffs and Tribulations! Is the World About to End... Again?

Another Fine Mess

Right so another day another catastrophe. Apparently oil prices are tumbling faster than a griffin with a crossbow bolt in its wing. Down two percent they say. Two bloody percent! Makes you wonder if the world's about to end. Again. Seems President Trump's tariffs are spooking the market more than a noonwraith in a cemetery. Folk are worried it'll drag the U.S. and maybe the whole damned world into a recession. Fantastic. Just what we needed. Though I will admit the old magister does have a point about bringing in 'billions of dollars a week'. Sounds like a sorcerer's take!

OPEC's Olive Branch... or Flaming Hanz

And as if the tariffs weren't enough OPEC+ decided to pump out more oil. More bloody oil! Like we needed that. It's like tossing a bomb into a bathtub. Saudi Aramco bless their pointy heads even slashed the price of their "flagship Arab Light crude." Now I'm no economist – gods know I'm barely literate – but even I can see that this ain't good. You know sometimes I wish I could just say "wind's howling" and move on but the barman expects coin and coin expects a stable economy.

Trump's Two Cents (Worth Less Than a Botched Contract)

Of course the President chimed in boasting about low oil prices and interest rates. 'No inflation!' he crows. Reminds me of some blustering noble I once met who insisted the drowners in his lake were friendly. Still as I keep telling Jaskier even a broken clock is right twice a day. But as always there's a catch. People fear that these tariffs might actually *raise* prices for businesses. Which would then *slow down* economic activity. Meaning less demand for oil. Which in turn is... well you get the picture. Buggered innit?

Recession? More Like a Royal Hunt for the Unemployed

Now JPMorgan is waving their hands and saying there's a 60% chance of recession. Apparently tariffs are about to turn the US into a level 5 monster nest. Great. Just bleedin' great. Makes me want to toss a silver bomb into the White House and be done with it. Bank of America is singing a similar tune claiming the trade war will cut oil demand growth in half while OPEC+ keeps pumping. They foresee an “eye watering” surplus they do. An “eye watering” surplus. Sounds like something a Leshen would leave behind after a particularly nasty kill.

Analysts and Alchemists Agree: It's Going South Faster Than a Striga

Goldman Sachs lowered their oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026. Seems they’re expecting things to be worse than a rainy day in Velen. And that's saying something! And if oil prices keep falling U.S. shale producers might have to shut down. Some are already struggling at $60 a barrel. One fellow named Jeff Currie even said prices could fall below $50. Below $50! Bloody hell. That's cheaper than a round of drinks at the Rosemary and Thyme.

Final Thoughts: Dimeritium Silver and a Stiff Drink

So what does it all mean? Well according to JPMorgan the trajectory is “unmistakably one way.” And that way my friends is down. Down like a Witcher's paycheck after a "negotiation" with a cheapskate noble. Honestly it sounds like a perfect storm is brewing. Tariffs overproduction recession… it's enough to make a Witcher reach for the strongest drink in the tavern. Maybe I should invest in Dimeritium futures instead. At least those keep the sorceresses away and that is always a good thing!