Geralt of Rivia's Guide to Bonds: Investing Like a Witcher (Without the Monsters)

A Witcher's Wisdom on Coin (and Bonds!)

Hmph. Bonds you say? Sounds about as exciting as a noonwraith convention. But even a witcher needs coin and if this Rieder fellow from BlackRock is saying there's a "generational opportunity" in these…bonds… then I'll listen. Two decades waiting for deals? Sounds like my wait for a decent bath after a griffin hunt. Low interest rates gone eh? About time something paid more than a handful of orens for risking your life.

Duration? More Like 'Dur ation' of Boredom

This Rieder chap talks about bond duration not being a reliable hedge. Sounds like a fancy way of saying 'don't bet on it.' He wants high coupons as a bulwark against equity market drawdowns. Well I prefer a silver sword against werewolves but to each their own. Seems like he's saying that if the stocks take a tumble these bonds will at least pay you something while you're waiting for the market to recover. Smart. Almost makes me wish I'd paid more attention in Gwent tournaments.

De Levered Companies? Is That Like De Fanged Dragons?

Apparently companies have been paying down their debts. 'De levered,' they call it. Sounds a bit like de fanging a dragon – makes 'em less scary I suppose. Rieder warns this opportunity won't last forever. Productivity innovation inflation… all the usual suspects. So the window to fill your coin pouch with these bonds is closing. Time to decide: invest or hunt another monster? Tough choice.

Trump Tariffs and the Impending Doom (or Prosperity?)

Ah tariffs. Political games… Always mucking things up. This Rieder says CEOs are waiting to see what happens with tariffs before spending. Reminds me of mages waiting to see which way the political winds blow before unleashing a fireball. He talks about a deadline with Europe. Trump said 'We can do whatever we want'. Well that fills me with confidence. About as much confidence as Vesemir had when he told me to 'Go slay that Fiend over there Geralt! It'll be easy!'

Where the Bloody Hell Are These Opportunities?

Front and belly of the curve European credit Spanish and Italian sovereign bonds...it's all Greek to me. At least monsters are easy to find: just follow the screams. Something about dollar investors getting a 'cross currency swap benefit'. Extra 2 2.5% for lending in Europe? Alright now you have my attention. Makes me wonder if I should start taking my Witcher contracts in Euros.

The Federal Deficit: A Monster Bigger Than Any I've Faced

Biggest risk: the rising federal deficit. Now that's a monster. Even I might need more than just silver for that one. Rieder mentions Treasury auctions and volatile interest rates. Inflation is coming down he thinks but not right away. Reminds me of dandelion wine: takes time to mature but worth the wait... hopefully. 'Markets tend to sense vulnerability'. Well ain't that the truth. Just like a flock of seagulls sensing a freshly gutted fish.