Peak Oil? Bloody Right, It's a Tipping Point

The Writing's on the Wall

Right let's get one thing straight. I've seen empires rise and fall faster than a Birmingham bookie's luck. This Diamondback fella Stice he's saying the same thing: the American oil boom might just be running out of juice. Apparently crude prices have taken a proper tumble about 17% this year. And Trump's tariffs ain't helping are they? This isn't about bloody peak oil itself its about a tipping point. When the music stops some are left without a chair. That includes the United States of America.

OPEC's Gamble: A Dangerous Game

Now you've got the Saudis and their lot at OPEC+ flooding the market. Classic power play. Make it cheap squeeze out the competition. It's like when I undercut Billy Kimber's betting racket but on a global scale. Stice says oil prices are as low as they've been since 2004 bar the Covid madness. He reckons US oil production has peaked and will start declining. 'When you plan something well there's no need to rush'. But that peak is declining like Grace Burgess' trust for the Shelby Family never to be seen again.

Shale's Revolution: A House of Cards?

For fifteen years the shale boom turned America into the biggest fossil fuel slosher in the world even ahead of the Saudis and Russians. Stice is saying all this has given the US 'energy security'. But he’s also saying that this cheap oil could jeopardize the whole damn thing. Like building a house of cards in a bloody hurricane. The whole thing will collapse like the Shelby family when someone snitches.

The Price of Hubris

Stice told the Diamondback lot that to keep pumping 13 million barrels a day and 6 million from the Permian might be too much especially when they're trying to keep investors happy. 'Everyone's a whore Grace. We just sell different parts of ourselves.' And that is all this is about. Selling and buying. They are selling lies and buying votes.

Fracking Slowdown: The Canary in the Mine

Fracking crews are already down 15% this year even more in the Permian. Stice figures the rig count will drop further. Diamondback has cut its budget by 400 million. This Trump's steel tariffs are the biggest cost headwind. That’s an extra 1% on well costs – 40 million quid down the drain. 'Whiskey's good proofing water. Tells you who's real and who isn't.' But will these blokes be able to read the signs or just drink their whiskey in peace as the world burns around them?

The Foot's Off the Gas

Diamondback's slowing down drilling less completing less. Stice says 'To use a driving analogy we are taking our foot off the accelerator as we approach a red light.' A red light indeed. More like the beginning of the end I reckon. But if the light goes green they'll floor it again. Well let's see if this turns out more like the Great War or the roaring twenties. Either way there's gonna be blood.