Trade wars and tanking markets got Tommy Shelby worried about the state of American finances. Is this the beginning of the end?
Trade wars and tanking markets got Tommy Shelby worried about the state of American finances. Is this the beginning of the end?

April's Folly: A Right Mess

Right so April's been a proper kick in the teeth for the markets hasn't it? More volatile than a Shelby family meeting after a bottle of whiskey. This tariff business coming out of Washington D.C. – it's like watching a house of cards in a hurricane. Makes a man wonder if they've got any sense over there or if they're just chucking darts at a board and hoping for the best. As my aunt Polly said once 'Sometimes the devil comes dressed as everything you ever wanted'. Seems fitting don't it?

S&P's Downfall: Echoes of the Past

The S&P 500's dropped 5.4% since this Trump bloke started flapping his gums about tariffs. Five point four percent! That's enough to make a man reach for the opium. They're saying it's reminiscent of 2008 and 1987 those financial dark ages. Well I remember '87 – nearly lost the Garrison that year. This feels like a similar sort of disaster brewing. Remember even the devil was once an angel.

The Dollar's on the Slide: A Proper Shocker

The dollar and Treasurys are joining the party sliding faster than a bookie after a fixed race. Usually they're the safe bet the last bastion when everything else is going to hell in a handcart. Now? They're sinking like the bloody Titanic. This Papic fella from BCA Research is saying there's a mass exodus from the US. 'U.S. is the bubble,' he says. Sounds ominous even for a cynic like me. "Everyone's a whore Grace. We just sell different parts of ourselves."

Bond Market Blues: Yields Going Through the Roof

These Wall Street types are starting to sweat about the currency and bond markets more than they are their hair. The 10 year Treasury yield's shot up and the dollar's at its lowest in three years. Lowest in three years! It's like watching Arthur's business investments go up in smoke again. The market is losing confidence in the dollar as the world's reserve currency. De dollarization they call it. Sounds like some fancy disease but it's just as deadly.

Confidence Crisis: A Dangerous Game

This Kashkari from the Minneapolis Fed is wondering why the dollar's not going up with the tariffs. A fair question. Maybe the investors are losing faith. Perhaps the Americans should have thought before stirring things up as they did! Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities says even the *fear* of foreign investors jumping ship is enough to trigger a panic. 'Markets are very confidence driven,' he says. Confidence eh? Something we Shelbys understand well. Though ours is usually built on a mountain of lies and a few well placed threats. "Whiskey's good proofing water. Tells you who's real and who isn't."

Real World Consequences: Feeling the Pinch

All this financial mumbo jumbo has real world consequences mark my words. American companies with foreign sales are going to feel the squeeze. There's talk of anti American sentiment and that's not good for business or the Government or anyone for that matter. The rising Treasury yields mean the U.S. government will be paying more interest exacerbating their deficit problem. And on top of it all they're worried about inflation – driven by those bloody tariffs. The Fed will be reluctant to cut interest rates the economy will be strangled. It's a right mess. A bloody mess. "Family is strength."


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