Bloody Hell: Is a Recession Coming For Us?

The Numbers Game

Right then listen up. Word on the street is this: the economy's about as steady as a drunkard on a Sunday morning. They're saying this GDP number for the first three months might be a measly 0.4%. Peaky Blinders handle bigger percentages than that in a single deal. Last time it was this bad we were practically staring down the barrel of a recession. And now with these tariffs Trump's slapped on everyone it’s like pouring petrol on a bonfire. As I always say 'Whisky's good proofing water. Tells you who's real and who ain't.' And these numbers are proofing that something's not right.

Zandi's Warning: An Off Ramp or a Cliff

That smart bloke from Moody's Zandi reckons we're heading for a recession if these tariffs don't get sorted quick. He says the data's singing a downbeat tune. Like Polly belting out a sorrowful ballad at the Garrison on a rainy night. If they pull their fingers out and wind down this trade war maybe we can dodge a bullet. But if not? He's saying June July August...that's when the real trouble starts. Remember what I always say 'Everyone's a wh*re Grace. We just sell different parts of ourselves.' And right now the government's selling us all a bad deal.

Trump's Gambit: A Fool's Errand?

Trump and his lot reckon these tariffs will make us stronger fill the coffers. They're talking about progress on inflation and the numbers might back them up a bit. But if consumer spending collapses all bets are off. This is a gamble a proper Shelby gamble. 'Lies travel faster than the truth,' and Trump's spinning a yarn that might just unravel.

The Fed's Next Move: A Cut Above the Rest?

The Fed's got its eyes on inflation aiming for that 2% target. They might cut interest rates soon maybe even next month. But this tariff business is throwing a wrench in the works. Like trying to fix a flat tire with a bottle of gin. Someone from Citigroup says it all hangs on how these tariffs hit consumer prices. It's a waiting game and we Shelbys are good at waiting. 'Already broken' They reckon...

Consumer Confidence: The Key to the Kingdom

It all boils down to the punters doesn't it? Consumer confidence is shot to bits. They might be spending a bit now trying to beat the tariffs but it won't last. If that GDP number's in the red Trump won't be happy. Nobody wants to be the leader when the economy goes belly up. 'We get dirty and the world stays clean,' I told them at the comittee meetings as it stands if the working man hasn't got money for gambling where are we? Ruined.

A Coin Flip: Heads or Tails?

Some bloke at Interactive Brokers reckons it's a 50/50 chance of a recession. All depends on whether the consumers start splashing the cash again. If they don't we're in for a rough ride. Time to sharpen the blades Peaky Blinders. 'When you plan something well there's no need to rush.' We'll be ready for whatever comes our way.