Bloody Hell! Are We Headed for Another Slump? (And Can Tariffs Be Blamed?)

The Devil's Brew: Numbers Don't Lie But They Can Confuse Blokes

Right so the whispers on the street are turning into shouts. This so called 'Gross Domestic Product' – sounds like a bloody new breed of racing pigeon doesn't it? – is predicted to be crawling at a measly 0.4%. Peaky Blinders move faster than that on a Sunday morning. And they said that the economy narrowly escaped recession in the second quarter of 2022. Like dodging a bullet in a back alley I tell you. If these figures are to be believed and that's a big 'if,' considering most politicians couldn't find their arse with both hands we're staring down the barrel of another downturn. Flat or negative growth? That's worse than a night at the Garrison without any whiskey.

Zandi's Warning: A Moody Tune for Moody's

Mark Zandi from Moody's sounds like a bookie more than an economist to me is saying unless these tariffs get the boot we're heading straight into recession. Bloody hell sounds like he's trying to sell newspapers with headlines like that. He claims the data is painting a bleak picture. Well I've seen bleaker pictures painted on pub walls after a Shelby Company brawl but I get his drift. Wall Street ain't exactly whistling Dixie either. Pessimism is rife especially from the consumers who drive two thirds of the whole bloody operation. We need customers otherwise we are going to be broke.

Goldman's Gloom and Jefferies' Jitters: Even the Rich Are Sweating

Even Goldman Sachs and Jefferies the top hat brigade have slashed their GDP estimates to 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. If those numbers are accurate we're heading for the cliff edge faster than a gypsy on a stolen horse. Usually two quarters of negative growth equals a recession. It's like a bloody mathematical certainty isn't it? Zandi believes if policymakers pull their fingers out and wind down the tariff war we might just swerve the bullet. But time's running out he warns. June July August... mark my words that's when the real trouble starts. Though I have to remind myself: 'It's when you can taste the blood that you know the job is done.'

The White House Gamble: Banking on Fool's Gold?

The suits in the White House reckon these tariffs will strengthen the economy and fatten the budget. They keep blathering on about progress on inflation. Fine. Wednesday's numbers are supposed to back that up. Economists expect the personal consumption expenditures price index – sounds like a bloody tongue twister – to show no gain for March. They are expecting it to be at 2.2%. So they're moving the goal posts. That's almost as dodgy as rigging a horse race innit? But hey the central bank gets closer to its 2% target and they might just cut interest rates. More like cut our throats.

Consumer Confidence: Shaken Not Stirred (Unless It's Whiskey)

Citigroup expects the Fed to cut rates in June but the big question is how much these tariffs will hit consumer prices. See that is the problem with you economist people always focusing on consumer prices. Consumer spending is supposed to be up in March but it might just be people panic buying before the tariffs kick in. If that GDP number comes back negative Trump won't want to be associated with a recession especially not so soon into his term.

A Coin Flip Recession: Heads We Win Tails We're Screwed?

According to Jose Torres a bigwig at Interactive Brokers we're at a 50/50 chance of a recession. He reckons the consumer needs to pull their finger out. If consumer spending doesn't pick up quick sharp we're in for a rough ride. Like Polly always says 'There's God and there are the Peaky Blinders'. This time however it will be more like 'There's God and there is recession'. So we'll see what tomorrow brings. Either way remember: 'Everyone's a whore Grace. We just sell different parts of ourselves.' Let's hope we don't have to sell too much to survive this one. Bloody hell.