Is Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' Really Beautiful or Just Another Headache for Business? Saul Goodman Weighs In!

Cap Hill Shenanigans: Business as Usual?

Alright folks Saul Goodman here your friendly neighborhood lawyer—and unofficial financial guru if I do say so myself. So word on the street (or rather Capitol Hill) is Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' is causing quite the stir. Seems like our esteemed politicians are at it again promising the moon and delivering... well let's just say it's not always pretty. Despite all the deficit talk these guys can't resist passing bills that make the national debt look like my client list after a DEA raid. 'Slippin' Jimmy' McGill would be proud of their maneuvering!

CFOs: Skeptical But Still Betting on Tax Breaks

Now according to a recent CNBC survey a whopping 86% of CFOs think this bill is gonna get some serious plastic surgery before it's finalized. But hey they're still betting on those sweet sweet corporate tax breaks sticking around like a bad rash. Looks like the tax cuts from 2017 are the gift that keeps on giving – at least until they expire at the end of the year. These CFOs are like my clients facing jail time: hoping for the best but preparing for a plea bargain.

July 4th Deadline? More Like a Fireworks Show of Political Posturing

Trump's demanding this bill be passed by July 4th. Good luck with that. That’s like telling Walter White to quit cooking. It's just not gonna happen. Meanwhile the House and Senate are bickering like me and my brother Chuck over the last Matlock rerun. They're fighting over everything from clean energy tax breaks to social safety nets. And some Republicans are even calling the bill 'immoral.' Immoral? Please. That's rich coming from politicians. I mean if they only knew about some of my... 'legal' strategies they'd really have something to complain about. And Ron Johnson calling the bill “immoral”? You know what’s immoral? Bad marketing!

X Date Looming: Debt Ceiling Drama the Sequel!

But don't worry folks there's always the 'X date' – that magical day when Uncle Sam can't pay his bills without raising the debt ceiling. Congress is tying this bill to the debt ceiling issue which let’s face it is like tying a Chihuahua to a pit bull. Gives them some wiggle room to work out their differences or more likely to keep arguing until the last possible second. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is warning that the X date might come sooner than expected. Looks like the pressure's on! But I’m sure Congress will work together in harmony… said no one ever.

Corporate Concerns: Certainty is the New Black

What do corporations really want? Certainty! It is the new black baby! They need those tax cuts made permanent not just another temporary fix. And they're hoping for the return of bonus depreciation interest expense deductions and full expensing for research and development. All these things are crucial to them. Trump can talk about bringing tax rates down to 15% all he wants. Businesses are happy just to not see them go up at the end of the year! The CFO survey also found that a majority (64%) of CFOs saying tariffs will hurt the economy. Tariff uncertainty is also a problem. 100% of CFOs taking the survey said current policy uncertainty is affecting their ability to make business decisions with about one third saying it is having a "significant impact." What businesses really need is for the tax cut certainty to help de risk the environment for business especially as tariffs are expected to serve as headwind for the economy in the months ahead.

The Crystal Ball: Inflation Bonds and the Stock Market

So what's the future hold? CFOs expect bond yields to remain elevated. They're a bit more optimistic about inflation even with those pesky tariffs. But most don't think the Fed will hit that 2% target until at least the second half of 2026. The stock market? Well CFOs are back to being bullish on tech but they're still worried about a potential downturn. A recession is still in the cards according to the CFOs with over half (55%) saying they expect a downturn either in the second half of this year or in 2026. Look folks it's a complicated world out there. And while I can't promise you a crystal clear financial forecast I can promise you this: whatever happens you're gonna need a good lawyer. Better call Saul!