Santos Swallowed Whole: ADNOC's Offer They Couldn't Refuse

A Rise from the Ashes

Right so the Shelbys aren't the only ones who know how to climb back from the bottom. Santos they’ve been playing a dangerous game dancing with debts and whispers of failure. But today their shares jumped like a bloody racehorse – 15.23% they say. Biggest leap since April 2020. Someone's finally offered them a deal they can't refuse and believe me I know about those.

The Arabs are Coming

Turns out the boys from Abu Dhabi are making a play. ADNOC led by XRG waving a fistful of dollars $18.72 billion to be precise. A consortium they call themselves. Including the Abu Dhabi Development Holding Co and some private equity blokes from Carlyle. They offered a price that made the Santos board consider the deal. 'Everyone suffers,' I hear Polly Gray saying 'Everyone bleeds'. In this case everyone gets richer.

27%? By Order!

These Arabs aren't playing games. They're offering AU$8.89 a share. That's a near 28% premium on last week's price. Now I know a thing or two about making offers people can't refuse. If I were them I'd take it and take it fast. We always have to negotiate carefully because in this world nothing is ever black and white.

The Board's Blessing

Santos' board said they are keen on the deal 'unanimously recommend' it to the shareholders. Of course they would. Unless someone else comes in with a bigger wad of cash this deal's as good as done. Remember business is war and they've found a way to win. 'Whisky's good proofing water. Tells you who's real and who isn't.' This is the real deal.

Past Sins

Santos has been a tricky beast over the years. Had some fall outs. Rejected a few couldn't agree with others. Too stubborn perhaps. They’ve danced with Harbour Energy even tried a jig with Woodside Energy but nothing stuck. This deal smells a bit like redemption. 'Sometimes death is a kindness,' as I always say and this takeover might just be the rebirth Santos needs.

LNG Goldmine

The real prize for these Arabs? Australia’s LNG operations. Gladstone LNG Darwin LNG and stakes in PNG LNG. These boys know how to get their hands dirty. It's about power control and the future. 'Intelligence is a very valuable thing innit my friend?' Control the gas and you control the game. And the game my friends is far from over.