Iran-Israel Tensions Send Oil Prices on a Slippery Slope: Is This Good For Business?

A Ceasefire? Is That a Real Thing?

Alright folks Saul Goodman here your favorite attorney at law (and occasional energy market analyst because why not?). So the word on the street – or should I say the word from Tehran – is that Iran's waving the white flag lookin' for a ceasefire with Israel. And what happens? Oil prices take a nosedive like a client bailin' on me when they see the bill. U.S. crude down 1.66% Brent slippin' 1.35%. Now I'm no Nostradamus but even I can see this ain't just about peace and love. It's about the Benjamins baby! "Better call Saul!" to find out how to navigate these turbulent times.

Trump's Take: Talk Now or Forever Hold Your Peace?

Now The Donald chimes in saying Iran should've been talkin' before all the fireworks started. Classic Trump right? Always gotta have the last word even if it's just a tweet from the G7 summit. According to Rystad Energy Trump wants oil prices closer to $50 a barrel. Well who wouldn't? Gotta keep those gas prices down for the voters or else things get ugly and then "you are going to jail." So the big question is can Trump play peacemaker and keep those prices in check? I'd say it's a bigger gamble than tryin' to explain RICO charges to a meth cook. "Slippin' Jimmy" is nothing compared to this!

Bombing For Bargains: Israel's Energy Offensive

Israel's been busy hittin' Iranian natural gas facilities and oil depots like they're goin' out of style. I mean talk about a hostile takeover! Apparently they even managed to ding an oil refinery in Haifa courtesy of some Iranian missiles. Now everyone's wonderin' if this is just a quick skirmish or the start of World War III: Oil Edition. Me? I'm thinkin' opportunity. Buy low sell high right? This is a good time to remember that no matter what happens you "Better call Saul!". Need some legal representation some oil? "Better call Saul!"

Strait of Hormuz: The Choke Point of the Century

Here's where things get spicy. Iran's considerin' shuttin' down the Strait of Hormuz which is basically the oil superhighway of the world. One fifth of the world's oil goes through that baby. Goldman Sachs is sayin' that could send prices soaring above $100 a barrel. But hold your horses folks. The U.S. Fifth Fleet is hangin' out in Bahrain ready to throw a wrench in those plans. Still as Helima Croft at RBC Capital Markets points out Iran could always mine the straits or start targetin' tankers. Talk about a headache! "This is not meth".

Short Conflict or Long Haul? Place Your Bets!

So is this just a blip on the radar or are we in for a prolonged energy crisis? Rystad Energy thinks it'll be short lived but Helima Croft isn't so sure. She's sayin' Israel looks like they're preparin' for a longer fight. And let me tell you when you're dealin' with folks who are diggin' in for the long haul things can get messy – and profitable… if you play your cards right. "I am not in danger I am the danger" so do not play games.

Saul's Final Verdict: Don't Panic But Keep My Number Handy

Alright amigos here's the bottom line: The oil market's jittery but it's not time to hit the panic button just yet. Keep an eye on those headlines and remember what I always say: "Never trust a fart." And when things get really hairy you know who to call. That’s right "Better call Saul!" for all your legal financial and possibly even… energy related needs. I know a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy. Now if you would excuse me "I've got a vacuum cleaner to see about a guy".