Fortune and Glory...Or Just Misery?
Well hello there fellow adventurers of the financial world! Indiana Jones here back from dodging boulders and deciphering ancient texts only to find the real treasure (or lack thereof) is buried in Wall Street! Seems like those money grubbing markets always two steps behind have finally caught up with the recession boogeyman they were too busy ignoring. It's like they've awoken a sleeping idol and now the market is the one running from the giant rolling ball!
Trump's Tariffs: I Hate These Guys!
Our old pal President Trump decided to dust off his 'emergency' tariff powers channeling decades of anti trade sentiments. It's like he found the Ark of the Covenant and decided to open it up right in the middle of the New York Stock Exchange! One man's Truth Social account is now the economic oracle. Experts at Bespoke Investment Group say economic data doesn't matter anymore. Reminds me of dealing with Belloq – logic goes out the window when egos get involved!
The Economic Blow: That Belongs In a Museum!
Henry McVey from KKR has crunched the numbers and boy are they ugly. These tariffs are a fiscal tightening of about 2.5% of GDP which could bring the U.S. federal tax rate to heights unseen this century. I've seen less destructive forces in ancient temples! We're talking a potential recession folks. A recession! As I always say "It's not the years honey it's the mileage." And these tariffs are adding mileage fast.
Walk Back Wonderland?
Some folks like Jim Paulsen are holding onto the hope that someone will realize the sheer lunacy of enacting a massive tax increase on the entire global economy. They're hoping for a walk back a Mulligan a 'Wait did I really say that?' moment. As for the Fed Chair Powell sees "no hurry" to cut rates which means we need some real economic pain or market stress to get their attention. Like needing to be chased by natives poison darts and snakes to get them to listen.
Market Mayhem: Why Did It Have To Be Snakes?!
The market's been hammered harder than a Nazi after a right hook from yours truly. We saw a plausible bottom but like most things in life it wasn't persuasive enough. There were bounces failed attempts and then... a 6% cascade! It's as if the market took a wrong turn in Petra and fell into a bottomless chasm. We hit record put option buying a post Covid low in the S&P 500's relative strength index and a post Covid high in the VIX. The CNN Fear & Greed Index? A measly 4! Fear indeed.
Hope Floats (But Hold On Tight)
Jason Hunter at JP Morgan thinks we might see a bear market rebound – a glimmer of hope in this economic apocalypse. But it might be short lived unless the news takes a dramatic turn for the better. Paulsen is seeing a glimmer of hope too. Financial stimulus is on the way the dollar is falling and oil is plummeting. If the administration opens an exit ramp there might be salvation yet. But valuations are still high even after the drop so proceed with caution. Remember folks "We are only offering you the truth. Take it... or leave it!" Now if you'll excuse me I have a golden idol to return before things get any worse...
stock market recession tariffs Donald Trump economy Federal Reserve investments market analysis financial crisis Indiana Jones
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fortune23
Snakes. Why did it have to be snakes... and tariffs?
JeffE951
At least when I'm running from Nazis, I know what I'm dealing with!
BigKLM10
Fortune and glory? More like fortune and misery!
patmm3
I knew I should have stuck to archaeology...
NumazPurho
Time to invest in shovels. I'm digging for buried treasure!
psycoffman
This is worse than finding out the Holy Grail was just a carpenter's cup!
lilxkaos
Quick, someone find the Ark of the Covenant and close it before it's too late!
robertvroom
I hate these tariffs!
kenster92
I have a bad feeling about this...