Not All Who Wander Are Lost, But Russia Might Be: A Wizard's Eye on the Arctic Chill

A Long Expected Party... in the Arctic?

Hoom well well what have we here? It seems the Arctic that vast and frozen realm is becoming a rather popular destination. Russia much like Smaug guarding his hoard has long held dominion over these icy lands. But now the West like a fellowship of sorts is turning its gaze northward drawn by promises of resources and strategic advantage. One might say 'A wizard is never late nor is he early he arrives precisely when he means to.' And it appears the West's arrival is timed to ruffle a few Russian feathers.

Russia's Icy Kingdom: More Than Meets the Eye

Russia you see has a rather significant claim to the Arctic spanning a great deal of its coastline. Millions of Russians call this frosty expanse home their livelihoods intertwined with the extraction of oil gas and minerals. The Northern Sea Route a vital artery for trade between Europe and Asia is of particular importance. As I've always said 'All that is gold does not glitter,' and in this case all that is ice holds considerable economic value. But the West's sudden interest fueled by both geoeconomic ambitions and concerns over security is causing a stir. Putin much like Denethor facing the encroaching darkness sees the shadows lengthening.

NATO's War Games: A Dance of Ice and Fire

NATO in its wisdom has been conducting war games in the Arctic honing skills for the unique challenges of cold weather warfare. Putin however views these exercises with a wary eye seeing them as a potential springboard for conflict. 'Fool of a Took!' one might exclaim but Putin's concerns are not entirely unfounded. The Arctic's strategic importance is undeniable and the struggle for dominance is intensifying much like the battles of the War of the Ring but with more snow and fewer Orcs (hopefully).

The Economic Chill: Sanctions and Shadow Fleets

International sanctions imposed in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine have had a chilling effect on some of Russia's Arctic projects. However like a resourceful hobbit Russia has found ways to circumvent these restrictions employing a 'shadow fleet' to continue exporting its resources. The former EU ambassador spoke of this noting the Arctic's crucial strategic interest for Russia economically and in terms of security. With this income and despite the sanctions Russia has been able to finance one third of the cost of the war in Ukraine with these exports.

The West Plays Catch Up: A Race Against Time

The West it seems is playing catch up in the Arctic. While Russia has been steadily developing its presence for years the West's renewed interest is largely a consequence of recent events. It is a bit like Merry and Pippin arriving late to the council of Elrond. The Arctic is now becoming a focal point for geoeconomic reasons as well with climate change making resources more accessible and opening up new shipping routes. China ever watchful has also cast its gaze upon this frozen prize.

Trump's Greenland Gambit: A Fool's Errand?

Ah and then there was Trump's grand notion of acquiring Greenland. A move that was met with widespread disapproval much like Bilbo's sudden departure from his own eleventy first birthday party. Russia however seemed to view the situation with a certain detached interest perhaps seeing an opportunity to leverage its own Arctic expertise. Bloomberg reported Moscow was interested in developing joint projects with the U.S. around natural resource extraction and transportation in the Arctic. 'Deeds will not be less valiant because they are unpraised.' But whether these deeds will be wise remains to be seen.