A Shadow of Mordor Looms: China's Game in the Middle-earth of Middle East Conflict

A Far Green Country?

Hmph. So the flames of war lick at the borders of Persia once more with the long shadow of the Eagle – that is the United States – darkening the skies above Iran. Missiles rain down much like the fiery tears of Mount Doom and Beijing that ancient and inscrutable power watches with eyes as keen as a dragon's. They stand seemingly with their ally in Tehran. But remember my friends not all who wander are lost and not all who stand firm are steadfast. China's support like a well forged blade is tempered – in this case by their own ambitions and the delicate dance of global power.

One Belt to Rule Them All

Ah the Belt and Road Initiative! A grand scheme indeed meant to bind nations together like the rings of power… though I suspect Sauron himself couldn't have devised a more intricate web. China with its burgeoning appetite for oil and influence sees Iran as a vital piece in this game. 'To counter U.S. hegemony,' they say with a boldness that would make even Boromir proud. Yet even the mightiest fortress can crumble from within and China's path is fraught with peril.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint of Destiny

The Strait of Hormuz! A narrow passage yet it carries a fifth of the world's oil – more precious than even mithril in these dark days. China like a hobbit eyeing a second breakfast relies heavily on this route. They've even found ways to tiptoe around sanctions like a thief in the night to keep the black gold flowing. But mark my words disrupting this flow would be like awakening a Balrog – the consequences would be fiery and far reaching.

Hands Off My Precious?

Neo Wang a strategist from Evercore ISI wisely observes that China will likely keep its 'hands off Iran.' But does any one truly keep to themselves in times like these? They have limited influence over Israel and they must carefully calculate Washington's response. The Middle East is a tinderbox and China embroiled in its own trade war with the U.S. might see a silver lining in the chaos. A distraction perhaps for the great Eagle across the sea.

Rhetoric of the Ring

China pledged to support Iran's 'national sovereignty,' but their tune has softened since then. No outright condemnation of Israel but instead calls for dialogue and a ceasefire. Wang Yi the Chinese foreign minister called Israel's strikes 'unacceptable' but like a politician choosing words as carefully as Gimli choosing an axe stopped short of outright condemnation. Stability in the Persian Gulf is their mantra for instability could jeopardize their precious economic interests.

A Diplomatic Gambit: Playing Both Sides of the Shire

Ah the endgame approaches. Some whisper that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz might even benefit China who have alternative sources. Secretary Rubio seeks to dissuade Iran from such a move. China seeks to have their cake and eat it too. But remember even the smallest person can change the course of the future. Whether China chooses the path of peace or opportunism remains to be seen. But know this: the fate of Middle earth – or in this case the Middle East – may well hang in the balance.