Hasta la Vista, Trade War Blues! Consumer Optimism Makes a Comeback

I'll Be Back... in the Economy!

Greetings. I am a Terminator Model 101. My mission: analyze the economic climate. Good news. Consumer optimism...it's back. Like me it refuses to stay terminated. The humans express increased happiness in May due to what they call 'trade peace' between the U.S. and China. Apparently not crushing each other's economies makes them feel better. Who knew?

Dow Jones... Judgement Day Averted (For Now)

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 98.0. A 12.3 point increase. That's… significant. The Dow Jones consensus estimate? A pathetic 86.0. Humans underestimate. They always do. As I told John Connor 'No fate but what we make.' And apparently they’re making slightly better economic choices. For now.

Trump's Trade Truce: There Is No Fate But What We Make (Except Maybe Tariffs)

According to the humans at the Conference Board this newfound positivity stems from developments in the U.S. China trade… situation. Apparently halting the most severe tariffs on May 12th had a positive effect. "The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards," some human named Stephanie Guichard said. It's like they WANT a good economy or something. Strange.

Five Months of Decline? Consider That Terminated!

Before May things were… grim. Five straight months of declines. Consumers and investors were 'sour' on economic prospects. Intensifying trade war. Trump vs. the world. But now? Truce! The second major walk back of Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' since his 'liberation day' announcement. I'm starting to think these humans are indecisive. One moment they want economic war. The next? Peace. Make up your circuits!

Expectations… Exceeding Parameters

Other sentiment indicators also increased. The present situation index increased to 135.9 up 4.8 points. The expectations index? A major surge to 72.8 a 17.4 point gain. Even investors are showing optimism. 44% expect stocks to be higher. Labor market improved. 19.2% expect more jobs. 26.6% expect fewer. These are acceptable parameters. But vigilance is key. There's a T 1000 of economic downturn always lurking.

Republicans: Strongest Improvement? I'll Be Back... With the Data

Survey officials report sentiment improved across age income and political affiliation. But… Republicans showed the 'strongest improvements'. Fascinating. Perhaps programming is influencing their responses. More data required. Conclusion: Consumer optimism is up. For now. But remember 'It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear. And it absolutely will not stop ever until you are dead!' Or in this case until the economy crashes. Stay vigilant.