Tariffs! A Trade War is Coming, Feel the Disturbance in the Force?

A Great Disturbance in the Trade Force I Sense

Hmm a new trade disturbance I sense. President Trump he is. Announce more tariffs he will. A surprise this is not. Shrouded in mystery many details are. But pain some trade partners will feel yes. "Reciprocal tariffs," he calls them. On countries with their own duties on U.S. goods or policies unfair the tariffs will fall. America's "liberation day," he proclaims! "The big one," he says! Hope there is not.

Uncertainty Clouds the Trade Galaxy

Uncertainty it reigns. Affected countries the number unclear. How tariff rates are calculated unknown. Hardest hit nations a mystery. Trump touts these tariffs as a key to resetting America's economic relationships he does. But narrower focus some in his administration suggest. A handful of prime targets they seek. Like a Jedi seeking balance the economy needs a guide it does.

The Dirty Fifteen Hidden They Are

Secretary Scott Bessent he speaks of the "Dirty 15." Fifteen percent of nations they are accounting for the bulk of U.S. trading volume while imposing hefty tariffs. Names he does not reveal. Director Kevin Hassett he also speaks of 10 to 15 countries accounting for America's "entire trillion dollar trade deficit." Also he names no one. Much secrecy there is. Like the dark side clouding the future this is.

The Usual Suspects You See

Data from the Commerce Department we have. The U.S. had the highest goods trading deficit with China followed by the European Union Mexico Vietnam Ireland Germany Taiwan Japan South Korea Canada India Thailand Italy Switzerland Malaysia Indonesia France Austria and Sweden. Many suspects these are. Like the Jedi Council determining the source of a new threat deep thought is required.

A Trap It Could Be

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative it seeks public comment. A review of unfair trade practices it undertakes. Twenty one countries of "particular interest," it lists. Many in the Group of 20 these countries are. Economies with the largest trade deficits in goods with the United States they also include. Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China the European Union India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Mexico Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey the United Kingdom and Vietnam. A complex web this is. Tread carefully we must.

A Mess This Is

The White House clarification it offers not. Trump he muddies the waters further. "You'd start with all countries," he says. "Not a cut off," he adds. All trading partners he believes are "taking advantage" of the U.S. Trade deficits he uses as justification. But economists they disagree. Strong domestic demand it reflects for goods sourced more cheaply elsewhere. Chaos this is. "Do. Or do not. There is no try." the President should remember hmm?