EU and China: Frenemies Forever?! Trump's Tariffs Throw a Wrench in the Works!

Raiders of the Lost Alliance

Right so the geopolitical landscape is getting a bit… dicey even for my tastes. Seems the EU and China aren't exactly rushing to hold hands and sing Kumbaya despite the whole Trump tariff tango. Max Bergmann from CSIS (which let's be honest sounds like a supervillain organization) says 'I don't see the EU and China uniting against the US.' Well that's just boring! Where's the fun in that? I've seen more cooperation from tomb raiders in a collapsing temple.

The Great Export Expedition

Apparently these two economic giants are too busy flexing their export muscles to become besties. Bergmann also pointed out: 'The potential for EU and China economic alignment is limited as both are export driven economies and are therefore fierce competitors.' Oh the drama! It's like watching two treasure hunters trying to grab the same priceless artifact. Only instead of ancient curses they're dealing with automotive and clean tech sectors. Equally terrifying I assure you!

Tit for Tariff: A Raider's Recipe for Disaster

The EU and China have a history of… shall we say 'robust discussions'? Think investigations tit for tat measures and enough tariffs to make even my accountant sweat. The EU accuses China of subsidizing everything from electric vehicles to steel while China retaliates with probes into EU pork and brandy. Brandy you say? Perhaps a celebratory drink after narrowly escaping a booby trapped temple? One can dream.

Human Rights and Wrongs

But wait there's more! It's not just about trade wars and economic skirmishes. Carsten Nickel from Teneo (another ominous sounding group) says there are 'fundamental differences' between the two regardless of what's happening with the US. Overcapacity human rights concerns and China's support for Russia are all throwing a wrench in the works. Honestly it's messier than trying to decipher an ancient hieroglyphic while being chased by a horde of angry natives.

The Art of the Deal… or Not?

Ian Bremmer from the Eurasia group (they’re everywhere!) chimes in about European mistrust toward China regarding intellectual property technological surveillance and industrial policy. So it sounds like no one is willing to play fair. China might try to cozy up to the EU now that US EU ties are strained. As Bergmann suggested 'China especially will see an opportunity to break up the transatlantic alliance and pull Europe closer.' Ah the age old game of divide and conquer. I've seen that one played out in more than a few ancient civilizations.

Soft Talk Hard Truths

Ultimately it seems everyone's trying to manage this 'very challenging situation for the global economy.' But let's be real the underlying issues aren't going anywhere. As Eurasia Group's Emre Peker and Mujtaba Rahman pointed out Trump's tariffs could make things even worse with the EU deploying safeguard measures to prevent China from 'dumping their goods on the EU market.' Softer rhetoric might be used but don't expect Brussels and Beijing to suddenly become best friends forever. After all as I always say 'We all make choices. But in the end our choices make us.' And these choices look like a whole lot of complicated maneuvering!