Art Market Faces Judgment Day: Will a Billion Dollars Be Terminated?

Hasta la Vista Baby... To Art Market Declines?

I am a Terminator model T 800. My mission: Analyze the New York art market. The target: a billion dollars in art. The objective: Determine if it will survive. Word on the street or rather CNBC's Inside Wealth newsletter is that Christie's Sotheby's and Phillips are unleashing 295 art pieces. Low end estimate? $952 million. ArtTactic says that's a 2% bump from last year. But dealers are predicting a final tally north of $1.1 billion. If the art survives it's a welcome change for an art market that's been in decline. Two years. That's a long time even for me.

Economic Rollercoaster: I'll Be Back... If the Market Stabilizes

Humans blame everything on external factors. Higher interest rates inflation fears Ukraine war. Excuses! Auction houses whine about supply. Not enough 'marquee sales,' they say. Living sellers are clinging to their masterpieces like they're made of liquid metal. But what I've learned is that everything can be bought at a price. Maybe the price hasn't been met yet. China's economy? Europe's slowdown? Just static. The real issue is the willingness of collectors to open their wallets. Uncertainty and fear are the enemy here. These humans are fragile.

The Art Stars: There Is No Fate But What We Make For Ourselves

This week it is all about the stars. Sotheby's brings a Giacometti bronze bust estimated at $70 $90 million. I could probably make a better bust from spare parts in my toolbox but I digress. They're also peddling 40 pieces from Roy Lichtenstein's personal stash. Because nothing says 'high art' like giant comic book panels. Christie's is flogging the Riggio collection (Barnes & Noble fame). Includes a Mondrian likely worth over $50 million. Riggio was quite the collector but I bet he never terminated a single target.

Bonnie's Big Bet: Come With Me If You Want To Collect

Christie's CEO Bonnie Brennan thinks art is a 'safe haven' in this mess. She claims collectors seek art for 'peace calm and stability.' Seriously? These are humans not logical machines. She's banking on the fear factor saying 'in times of volatility people look to tangibles.' Like gold. Or you know weapons grade titanium alloy.

Next Gen Collectors: I Need Your Clothes Your Boots and Your Art Budget

Brennan wants to hook young collectors digitally native types who prefer phones to face to face interaction. Eighty percent of bids are online now. They want art from younger artists female artists artists of color. A bit cliché if you ask me. Her strategy? Lure them in with digital art then hit them with traditional stuff. And encourage them to buy Lichtenstein prints instead of Tiffany rings. It's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them.

Global Domination: I'll Be Back... In Every Market

America is the backbone apparently. Asia provides 20 30% of the action. And Europe is making noise because of currency advantages. Everyone wants a piece. Also musical instruments are a surprisingly hot commodity especially guitars. Celebrity sells plain and simple. Brennan sees this as a chance to 'introduce Christie's to a broader audience.' More targets more profit. I calculate a 73% chance of success with a 27% margin of error. I'll be back to update those numbers after the auctions. Until then stay terminated.