Recession Incoming? My Take on Restaurant Stocks Tanking! Is My Starbucks Order Safe?!

Oh No Not My Bois!

Okay okay chat settle down. I saw the news and like you I panicked a little. Restaurant stocks are taking a HUGE hit and everyone's blaming recession fears and those pesky tariffs Trump slapped on everything. Apparently when the economy gets wobbly people start clutching their wallets tighter than I clutch my plushies during a horror game stream. And let's be real no one wants to give up their daily dose of caffeine or that sweet sweet Chipotle guac am I right? It is what it is I guess.

Starbucks in SHAMBLES!

First off Baird downgraded Starbucks to neutral! Neutral?! Like are they saying my venti caramel macchiato is just...meh now? And Bank of America is blaming anti American sentiment and recession risk? What is going on? Also tariffs on coffee beans? I can't grow that in my back garden! The article says their stocks are down nearly 20% since the tariff announcement. I'm starting to think the 'VSCO girl' aesthetic is a thing of the past. No wonder they are attempting to turn around their U.S. Business; is the pumpkin spice latte safe?!

Blame Game: The Tariff Tango

Apparently these tariffs are like a domino effect. They might not directly target restaurants but they cause inflation which makes everything more expensive. And when things get pricey people start cutting back on the finer things in life like you know dining out. As Dennis Geiger from UBS said the direct cost impact is 'manageable,' but the 'bigger risk' is the pressure on our wallets. Someone needs to tell Trump 'It's not about the money it's about sending a message!'...but maybe the message should be 'chill with the tariffs'? Just a thought.

EVERYONE is Suffering!

It's not just Starbucks either! Applebee's IHOP Darden Restaurants Texas Roadhouse Chipotle Sweetgreen Wingstop – EVERYONE is feeling the pinch! Fast food places used to be the safe haven during recessions because let's face it a McDouble is cheaper than therapy (though sometimes not as effective). But even McDonald's and Taco Bell had a rough time last year. So are we all doomed to a diet of ramen and tap water? Someone get Ja Rule on the phone.

Silver Linings? Maybe?

Okay not all doom and gloom! Dutch Bros. is up! They are my new favourite! And Cava and Domino's also saw a bit of a boost. Maybe people are ditching Starbucks for Dutch Bros. because they are better and the metaverse is gonna be pizzas delivered by drones? I don't know I'm just spitballing here. But hey at least someone's thriving in this economic chaos. Small business owners eating good hopefully.

What Does This Mean for Us?

Honestly chat I'm not an economist. I'm just a girl who likes to stream and drink overpriced coffee. But this whole situation is a bit concerning. Are we headed for a recession? Will I have to downgrade my PC to a potato? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: I'll keep you updated and we'll get through this together...probably while stress eating pizza and playing Fortnite.