Is the S&P 500 About to Hit All-Time Highs? My Take (and My Money Moves!)

Bears Be Gone! Or At Least That's What I'm Hoping...

Okay fam let's talk stonks. I've been watching the S&P 500 like I watch my K/D ratio in Valorant and let me tell you things are looking spicy. All those equity bears are growling but I'm over here sharpening my horns ready for a bull run. I'm seeing a serious possibility of a retest of the S&P 500's all time high. It feels like we're in the middle of a market melt up! I haven't felt this bullish since I found out I was getting my very own emote! So I want to use options to like *carefully* capture another leg up after the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has bounced 21% since "liberation day" lows back in April and geopolitical tensions ratchet up. I mean come on who doesn't love a good comeback story?

Remember the Panic? I 'Member!

Remember when President Donald Trump announced his trade tariff plans back in April and everyone lost their minds? You had people calling for a recession a repeat of Black Monday and even hyper inflation! A whole bunch of analysts scrambled to lower their S&P 500 price targets for 2025 after a nearly 20% drop. It was like watching my teammates throw a ranked game. But I ever the optimist (and maybe a little bit of a contrarian) thought it was an overreaction. I thought it was probably just a brash negotiating tactic which let's be real is kind of Trump's signature move.

Buying the Dip: My Diamond Hands Moment

Leaning into the equity discount when SPY traded down to a ridiculous oversold condition at $481 was nerve wracking I'm not going to lie but when volatility spikes (VIX) up above 50 let alone 60 that is the time to buy stocks not when the VIX is under 15. No matter how bad it feels to be buying. Between April 9 and May 12 the VIX plummeted from a high of 57.96 to below 20 a roughly 65% drop in just 22 days. The VIX's historic (3 rd quickest drop ever) drop signaled a swift return to market stability with the S & P 500 rebounding over 6% by mid May and up 20% by June from its April lows. It was my diamond hands moment.

Exaggerated Moves and Testing the Bears

I believe all market moves are exaggerated these days (to both the downside and upside) and that is why I believe the nerve of the bears will be tested above 6,150 in the S & P 500 Index soon. The timing of this test is remarkable as options expiration is this week and markets are closed on Thursday for Juneteenth. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as the "option expiration week effect". Large cap stocks with high options trading volume tend to see particularly strong performance during these weeks. With the VIX tethered to 20 options premium has certainly become less expensive but by no means is it cheap. Therefore I want to buy a call spread as selling that upside call will offset some of the cost associated with owning the opportunity to capture a new all time high test ($613.23 on Feb. 19 for SPY). I have spoken!

Defining Risk and My Trade: A Spicy Call Spread

Defining risk is critical after the bounce markets have seen since early April. The trade: Buying a call spread. Here's what I did so don't copy my homework!: * Bought the July 18 $605 SPY call for $8.30 * Sold the July 18 $620 SPY call for $2.65 This spread costs an investor $5.65 or $565 per one lot spread. This spread was established when SPY was trading just above $600. Wish me luck!

Disclaimer Time (Because Lawyers am I right?)

So the article says: Kilburg is long this spread and long SPY. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC NBC UNIVERSAL their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television radio internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL INVESTMENT TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer. In simpler words don't yolo your life savings based on my hot takes. I am just saying that!