Fortune and Folly: Indy's Take on America's Consumer Confidence Crisis!

Snakes. Why Did It Have to Be Snakes...and Declining Retail?

Alright adventurers! Your favorite archaeologist here dusting off my fedora and diving headfirst into the treacherous temple of the American economy. Seems like something's amiss and it's not just the cobwebs in my office. This week the economic spirits are restless with retail sales dropping like a priceless idol in a crumbling ruin. May saw a 0.9% decrease following April's revised 0.1% dip. What in the name of Marcus Brody is going on?

The Curse of the Tariffs!

Now let's not forget those pesky 25% tariffs on non U.S. assembled vehicles that kicked in on April 3. Apparently those tariffs which according to S & P Global Mobility made up 46% of domestic sales in 2024 took a bite out of car sales – a whopping 3.5% monthly decrease to be exact! It's like trying to outrun a boulder in a narrow passage; sooner or later you're going to get squashed. "It's not the years honey it's the mileage," and these tariffs are adding some serious mileage to our economic woes.

Amazon's Extended Prime Day: A Desperate Plea or a Clever Ruse?

Ah Amazon the modern day bazaar. They're stretching their Prime Day event to a staggering 96 hours! Last year it was just two days. Could it be a simple test for their new 'Today's Big Deals'? Maybe. But call me cynical it smells like an attempt to resurrect demand. Like Belloq trying to steal the Ark they're grasping at straws. "We are only walking to our death," said Sallah. Are we walking to our economical doom?

Sentiment's Tomb: Consumer Confidence Struggles to Resurface

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index did rebound slightly climbing to 60.5 in June. But it's still far from its former glory. The index is still off from December's high of 74 or even February's 64.7 when the tariff talks were heating up. It's like finding a lost city only to discover it's mostly rubble. I don't know I'm making this up as I go!

The Fed's Balancing Act: Rates Risks and Rising Energy Prices

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting. While everyone expects rates to remain steady (4.25% to 4.5%) the real treasure lies in understanding their future moves. With energy prices creeping up due to geopolitical tensions and the potential for an Iran related supply shock the Fed faces a tricky balancing act. They need to maintain price stability and full employment. It's like navigating a booby trapped temple – one wrong step and ka boom!

Hope Remains: Budget Conscious Consumers and Clever Retailers

But fear not fellow adventurers! There's still hope. While retail sales are down other sectors like restaurants are seeing a pickup. Consumers are becoming more budget conscious hunting for deals like I hunt for artifacts. As long as the labor market holds steady we might just make it out of this tomb alive. Retailers like Amazon Costco and TJX Companies are well positioned to navigate these turbulent times. These retailers are “making it up as they go” just as I do. Remember private consumption is two thirds of the economy. Now where's my whip?