Fortune and Glory or Bust! Is the US Stock Market Doomed?

The Sands are Shifting!

Snakes. Why did it have to be snakes...and tariffs! Yours truly Indiana Jones here to decipher another economic mystery. Seems some folks are getting jittery about the US stock market thanks to…well let's just say a certain 'presidential' fondness for tariffs. These tariffs you see are like throwing a perfectly good idol into a pit of despair only this time the despair is the stock market. The S&P 500 has taken a nosedive faster than I do when fleeing natives and investors? They're making a run for it like Belloq spotting the Ark of the Covenant! It appears that the familiar tune of US dominance in the world of finance is now being replaced by an exotic oriental sound specifically that of international equities.

Fortune Awaits or is it Fool's Gold?

Christine Benz from Morningstar a dame with more sense than a whole crate of crystal skulls suggests that even *before* this tariff tango a global portfolio was a smart move. Now? It's practically essential she says. Jacob Manoukian from J.P. Morgan Private Bank echoes the sentiment – global diversification is the new Holy Grail apparently. But hold your horses! Paul Christopher from Wells Fargo Investment Institute thinks dumping US stocks is like choosing the wrong cup in the Temple of Doom – fatal! He argues the US still looks like a 'bargain.' A bargain you say? Hmm...like that shrunken head I picked up in Borneo. Looked good at the time...

US Exceptionalism Bites the Dust?

For years the US market was the cat's pajamas outperforming everyone since mid 2008 with an average annual return of nearly 12%. The MSCI EAFE the index of developed countries outside the US and Canada limped along at a measly 3.6%. But 2025 is a different beast altogether. J.P. Morgan's analysts themselves admit that this 'US outperformance' show might be over. The trade war with China a battle more bewildering than trying to reason with a Thuggee cultist has everyone worried. Tariffs are flying faster than bullets in a Shanghai nightclub and the US markets are feeling the heat.

The Dollar's Demise?

The S&P 500 is down roughly 10% this year the Nasdaq Composite is tanking faster than the Titanic (over 16% down!) and even the Dow is feeling the pain. Meanwhile the EAFE is up about 7%. This isn't just a blip; analysts at Capital Economics are questioning if the US is still the belle of the ball for foreign investors. Even Janet Yellen former Treasury Secretary is saying these tariffs are making it impossible for businesses to plan. It's a trifecta of trouble: stocks bonds and the dollar all falling at the same time. That's rarer than a sober bar fight in Nepal.

History Repeats...or Does It?

Now history buffs (like myself) know that market cycles ebb and flow. According to Hartford Funds the US outperforms international stocks for about eight years on average. But get this the US is currently almost 14 years into its cycle. Meaning if history is any indication international stocks are overdue for a comeback. But remember what Lao Tzu said: "The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step." Or in this case one risky investment?

Proceed with Caution!

The experts are saying tread carefully. Benz suggests mirroring a global stock fund like the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF (VT) which is about 63% US stocks and 37% international. But remember rebalancing is key says Douglas Boneparth of Bone Fide Wealth. Don't go chasing waterfalls...err I mean don't make sudden moves. Barry Glassman of Glassman Wealth Services keeps a two thirds to one third ratio of US to foreign stocks. The moral of the story? Don't be greedy don't be hasty and for goodness sake don't trust anyone! Especially if they offer you a smooth drink on an airplane. Now if you'll excuse me I have a map to decipher…and possibly a snake to outrun.