A Shadow Recedes: Trump Delays, and Oil Prices Breathe Easier Than a Hobbit After Second Breakfast!

A Delay is Never Late Nor is it Early It Arrives Precisely When It Means To!

Hoom well met! Gandalf the Grey at your service. News has reached my ears carried on the wings of the eagles (or perhaps more prosaically the internet) that the price of oil has taken a tumble like a careless hobbit down a rabbit hole! It seems President Trump in his wisdom has decided to tarry before unleashing the might of… well you know who... upon Iran's nuclear ambitions. Brent crude bless its heart fell by a not insignificant $2.78 a drop of over 3%! One might say "Fly you fools!" but I suspect the oil traders were more likely saying "Huzzah!"

Not All Who Wander Are Lost But Some Oil Prices Are!

Now while Brent was taking a bit of a tumble the U.S. crude ever the contrarian gained a little ground like a stubborn dwarf refusing to yield an inch of mithril. Up 84 cents it rose! A small victory perhaps but every little helps as they say in the Shire. Trump speaks of negotiations a word that sounds almost as alien in these times as Elvish does in the marketplaces of Bree. Still one must hope for the best even when faced with the likes of Mordor... or OPEC which are often difficult to tell apart.

Two Weeks to Decide: A Wizard's Delay or a Politician's Ploy?

The President has declared a fortnight to be the period of his great deliberation. Two weeks! That's enough time for a hobbit to eat seven meals for a wizard to concoct a potion of considerable potency or for the world to change entirely! He speaks of negotiations with Iran though whether they'll be as fruitful as Bilbo's conversation with Smaug remains to be seen. I have a feeling it will be closer to the time Saruman tried to get me to join him.

One Does Not Simply Negotiate With Mordor... or Does One?

Karoline Leavitt the White House Press Secretary read out Trump's statement clear as a bell and echoing through the halls of power. But words are wind are they not? Even the most carefully chosen phrases can be twisted and turned much like a Gollum's promises. Whether these negotiations will amount to more than a puff of smoke remains to be seen. As I said to Frodo once All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us. And Mr. Trump has been given two weeks.

Israel's Strikes: A Storm Brewing in the East

While the gears of diplomacy (or whatever passes for it these days) grind slowly Israel seems rather less inclined to wait on the whims of fate. Prime Minister Netanyahu a fellow with a will as strong as any dwarf lord has ordered increased strikes on Iran. Tensions are rising like the fires of Mount Doom and could potentially engulf everything. I fear the price of oil is but the smallest of concerns if this conflict escalates. Though tell that to the shareholders of ExxonMobil!

The Road Goes Ever On... and Hopefully Not Upwards (for Oil Prices)

An Iranian missile has struck a hospital in southern Israel Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday like a stone thrown into a still pond and ripples spread. The situation remains… unsettled to say the least. We must hope that cooler heads prevail and that the fires of war do not consume us all leaving the price of oil as the least of our worries. For now I shall watch and wait and perhaps partake in a pipe of Old Toby. After all even wizards need a moment of peace before the next great calamity. Farewell... for now!