Fortune and Folly: Indy's Take on the U.S.-China Trade Tango!

Another Fine Mess!

Great snakes! Just when you think you've unearthed the Ark of the Covenant you find out it's just a cleverly disguised box of sand! This U.S. China trade deal is starting to feel the same way. After a 'breakthrough' – and I use that term loosely like calling Belloq a 'gentleman' – both sides are already eyeing each other with suspicion. Liu Weidong from some state affiliated think tank (sounds like a front for a secret society if you ask me) says these next 90 days 'won't be smooth.' Well color me surprised! It's like expecting a peaceful stroll through a snake pit. Uncertainty? Smaller steps? Sounds like a recipe for a slow motion train wreck. I've seen less tension at a Hovitos ceremony!

The Ministry of Mischief!

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is already throwing legal punches against anyone curbing their advanced semiconductors. It seems like everyone wants their slice of the pie just like those mercenaries in Cairo wanted the Staff of Ra. And don't even get me started on the Huawei chip warning – accusations flying faster than a biplane dodging German fighters! The U.S. claims they've softened their stance but the Chinese aren't buying it. This whole thing is more tangled than Marion's love life.

Rare Earth Rumble!

Ah rare earths – the MacGuffin of the modern age! Everyone's scrambling for them and China's got the map. The U.S. was expecting China to loosen export controls but it looks like they might be holding onto those reins tighter than I hold onto my hat in a windstorm. Scott Kennedy from some 'Center for Strategic blah blah blah' (another secret society I tell you!) thinks this could lead to a re escalation. 'Re escalation,' eh? Sounds like we're headed for another temple collapse only this time it'll be the global economy!

Ambiguity? I Hate Ambiguity!

The White House is mum on the subject leaving us all in the dark like a Peruvian cave. Are those rare earth export controls part of China's response to U.S. tariffs? It's all a bit hazy like trying to read an ancient scroll after a dust storm. Yue Su some economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit says the truce is fragile. She thinks China might 'recalibrate' its export controls. In other words they're playing chess while the rest of us are playing checkers. It's always something!

Trump Xi Tango!

Trump's hinting at a chat with Xi maybe even a trip to China. But Beijing's keeping quiet like they've swallowed the Sankara Stones. Kennedy thinks it's too soon for a pow wow. Meanwhile the new U.S. Ambassador to China is tweeting about fentanyl calling for 'strong actions.' Sounds like he's ready for a fight! But let's be honest these tariffs and talks are all about money honey! The U.S. left in place 20% in tariffs imposed earlier this year over China's alleged role in the fentanyl crisis. It's all part of the game I suppose but not a game I enjoy. I prefer punching Nazis.

Riding off into the Sunset... or a Trade War?

So where does this leave us? Chinese exporters are looking elsewhere some are finding 'illicit ways' around tariffs (always a fun adventure!) and the real estate sector is still sluggish. But hey online shopping is up and some electric car company is making money! China's planning its next five year plan focusing on 'scientific and technological self reliance.' Sounds like they're digging in for the long haul. But as I always say 'It's not the years honey it's the mileage.' And this trade tango is putting on the miles... right into a potential disaster! Now if you'll excuse me I have a map to decipher. And hopefully this time it leads to something more valuable than another headache.