Strait of Hormuz: Is Iran About to Ground the Ghosts?

Wake Me When You Need Me: Hormuz Edition

So they're talking about closing the Strait of Hormuz? Again? Sounds like someone's poking the hornet's nest with a plasma pistol. For those of you just joining the party this little waterway is where about 20 million barrels of oil go through every day. That's like half a dozen Halo rings' worth. If it gets shut down energy markets go boom! But everyone is saying that it's basically not going to happen or impossible. 'We'll see about that,' as the Arbiter would say.

No Net Gain: The Enemy of My Enemy is Still My Problem

Some egghead named Ellen Wald from Washington Ivy Advisors thinks it's a dumb move for Iran. Apparently blocking the oil flow would backfire especially since their own infrastructure hasn't been targeted. 'It's not over 'til I say it is,' but she's got a point. Messing with the strait would anger their biggest customer China which is true. Even the Covenant wouldn't want to upset the guys funding their plasma rifles.

China's Not Gonna Like This: Economic Heavyweights

Wald also mentioned that China won't be happy. They're Iran's number one oil importer and biggest trade partner. Disrupting the Strait? That's like scratching a Grunt's itch with a Needler – messy and counterproductive. According to Anas Alhajji at Energy Outlook Advisors Iran would hurt themselves more than anyone else. They get most of their daily goods through that same route. Sounds like a lose lose even for a Jackal.

Deja Vu All Over Again: The History Books

Iran's pulled this stunt before back in 2018 and earlier around 2011/2012. Seems like their go to move when things get heated over nuclear stuff. But never been acted upon with analysts saying that it's simply not possible. 'I need a weapon,' a weapon of mass disruption seems to be their M.O. but they've never actually gone through with it. Kind of like threatening to use the Halo array – lots of talk not much action.

Impossible Missions: Or Just Really Difficult?

The Strait of Hormuz is supposedly too wide to close. Some guy named Alhajji says most of it's in Oman not Iran. Plus ships can just reroute through the UAE and Oman. But this is too easy! Of course Vivek Dhar from Commonwealth Bank of Australia thinks a blockade is a 'last resort' if the US and Iran get into a punch up which is more like the conflicts that I am used to.

Extreme Times Call For... Extreme Oil Prices?: High Stakes

Helima Croft at RBC Capital Markets thinks a full scale blockade is unlikely because the US Fifth Fleet is hanging out in Bahrain. But Iran could still attack tankers and mine the strait. Amena Bakr from Kpler says closing the strait is an 'extreme scenario,' but they're not ruling it out completely. Because of this news crude futures jumped! Sounds like someone is about to make a fortune of this if it were to happen. Either way this whole situation is a wild ride and it ain't over 'til the fat Grunt sings.