This is the Way... the Oil Prices are Headed! Mando's Market Musings After the Iran-Israel Tussle

I Have Spoken: Oil's Wild Ride

The Force was strong with the oil market this week or maybe it was just the Iran Israel squabble. Fzzzzz...boom! Prices shot up faster than the *Razor Crest* escaping Moff Gideon. We saw U.S. crude jump over 15% when Israel started its air campaign against Iran on June 13. And then KABOOM when the U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear sites global benchmark Brent hit $81.40 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate topped out at $78.40. This is the way the prices go up...quickly.

Ceasefire: 'I Can Bring You In Warm or I Can Bring You In Cold'

But hold your Jawa juice! As soon as it was clear Iran wasn't going to turn the whole region into a bonfire the market cooled faster than a carbonite freeze. WTI dropped $14.40 per barrel – 18% – from Monday's high to Tuesday's low. Seems like everyone was saying "I have spoken," and speaking ceasefire. Even bounty hunters have to adapt to market conditions. This is the way I suppose.

The Price is Right: This is the Way Down

According to some eggheads at Macquarie Group the market's more bearish now than before the fireworks started. Apparently Trump might let Iran sell oil to China without Uncle Sam breathing down their necks. Remember credits will do fine... According to Morgan Stanley before the fuss oil prices were already in the dumps thanks to Trump's tariffs and OPEC+ pumping oil like they were trying to fill the Sarlacc Pit. Back to square one it seems.

Trump Card: 'I Could Stop It If I Wanted'

Trump's been hinting he might ease up on Iran sanctions. He even told China they could keep buying Iranian oil. Beijing's already buying most of Iran's 1.7 million barrels per day! One analyst at Citi thinks Trump's worried about high oil prices. This is a shock really. It turns out he has been considering sanctions relief for Iran. The only problem is that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei angered him with a defiant speech and he immediately dropped all work on sanction relief and more!

Peace in Our Time? Don't Get Cocky

The ceasefire seems to be holding but don't get cocky. Some folks at Rystad Energy think this means the U.S. and Iran might start jawing about Iran's nuclear program again. Rapidan Energy gives the ceasefire a 60% chance of holding without a deal. Deutsche Bank agrees saying everyone's got their own reasons for peace. But remember kid: "That's not how the Force works!"

What's Next? 'I'm a Mandalorian. Weapons are part of my religion'

So what does this mean for your credits? Oil prices will probably wobble in a $5 range for a few weeks. If everyone calms down Brent could drop to the low $60s maybe even the high $50s this year. For now this Mandalorian's heading back to the *Razor Crest*. Time to find a new bounty... or maybe just a decent cup of spotchka. I have spoken. This is the way.