
All Too Well... Anchored Inflation Expectations
Okay Swifties let's talk money! Not my Eras Tour earnings (though let's be real they're epic) but those ever so slightly less glamorous U.S. Treasury yields. Apparently they've been doing the 'roller coaster' thing dipping even after Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave us the 'We're in no hurry' speech about cutting interest rates. He's all about keeping those 'longer term inflation expectations well anchored.' Sounds like he's trying to write a catchy chorus but I think 'Shake It Off' is catchier. Am I right?
Style (of Investing): Bond Yields and Prices
Now here's where it gets interesting. These yields are like my relationships—they go up and down! (Except hopefully yields are a bit more stable than some of my past flames). The 10 year Treasury yield was down 3.1 basis points at 4.291% the 2 year yield lost 1.4 basis points to 3.815%. The 30 year shed 2.7 basis points to trade at 4.832%. Remember kids bond yields and prices move in opposite directions its like 'The Archer' sometimes you're the hunter and sometimes you're the prey!
Bad Blood (Between Iran and Israel) and a Fragile Truce
Adding to the drama we have a ceasefire situation between Iran and Israel. Apparently after some missile action (which is NEVER a good look by the way) Trump declared a ceasefire. Quote 'THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!' Capital letters and all! It's like he's trying to write a song title. Sadly both countries couldn't resist firing some 'nonlethal rockets' before settling down. Let's hope this ceasefire holds longer than... well you know. (I'm trying to stay vague here people!). It's like a 'Delicate' situation we're in.
We Are Never Ever Ever... Cutting Rates? (Maybe)
Powell's basically saying 'Hold up we're good. We'll cut when WE feel like it.' But NatAlliance's Andrew Brenner is throwing shade hinting the market thinks Powell's gonna have to cut rates faster than he's letting on. It's like when I release a 'From the Vault' track and everyone loses their minds – unexpected and faster than anticipated! Let's just say this a 'Love Story' between the market and lower rates! (Or at least a strong like).
Shake It Off (the Economic Anxiety)
So what's the takeaway? The economy's a bit like a complicated relationship. There are ups downs and moments when you just want to scream into a pillow. But hey we've got Jerome Powell trying to keep things stable (bless his heart) and hopefully a ceasefire that actually holds. In the meantime I'll keep writing songs and you all keep streaming them. Sound like a deal? If you're feeling overwhelmed you can just 'Shake it Off'! I know I will...
Look What You Made Me Do... (Analyze Financial News)
Alright Swifties I am out. I have to go back to writing lyrics or maybe start a hedge fund. Who knows?! Just remember what I have said: Sometimes you have to risk it all or you just never know. If you made it this far in this article then thanks for listening to my take and I hope you enjoyed my easter eggs I tried to hide them well. Don't blame me for what I write cause baby I'm gonna shake shake shake shake shake shake it off shake it off!
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