License to Kill… the Markets? Tehran and Tel Aviv's Tango of Terror

From Tehran With Missiles

Right so Tehran's decided to play a game of 'who can hit harder' with Tel Aviv. Missiles flying refineries potentially ablaze – it's all rather dramatic isn't it? They say 'never say never again' but I was hoping 'never' applied to regional conflicts escalating into potential global crises. As usual the markets are having a little flutter trying to decide if this is a 'Die Another Day' situation or just a minor hiccup before tea time.

Iron Dome: Shaken Not Stirred

Apparently Iran's Revolutionary Guard has some 'innovative methods' that have given Israel's Iron Dome a bit of a workout. Now I've seen a few gadgets in my time – remember that Aston Martin ejector seat? – but outsmarting a missile defense system is a new level of cunning. The Israelis claim they've got 'full aerial superiority' but I'll believe it when I see it preferably from a safe distance with a martini in hand. Naturally shaken not stirred.

Oil's Well That Ends… Where?

Ah oil prices. Always the sensitive type aren't they? They've perked up a bit as expected with all this saber rattling. Investors are busy trying to calculate the odds of this turning into a full blown 'World Is Not Enough' situation complete with disruptions to crude supplies. Let's hope someone remembers to keep an eye on the Strait of Hormuz; a blocked shipping lane is never a good look. A bit like wearing brown shoes with a tuxedo.

Markets: The Name's Bond Complacent Bond

Now here's where things get a bit odd. Despite the rockets and the rhetoric the markets seem rather… unconcerned. Gold's taking a bit of a breather and stock indices are surprisingly chipper. Luis Costa from Citigroup seems to think there's hope for a 'faster resolution'. Well I've seen faster resolutions to a vodka martini order but let's hope he's right. Otherwise we might be looking at a 'Quantum of Solace' situation – and nobody wants that.

Pay the Price Mr. Tehran

The Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz is promising that Tehran will 'pay the price'. Sounds a bit like something Blofeld would say doesn't it? He's talking about targeting 'regime targets and security infrastructure'. I trust he's got a good intelligence team because collateral damage is so dreadfully… untidy. Although it seems Donald Trump thinks assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei is a bit much. He's probably right. 'Live and Let Die' is probably a better strategy.

Enter the Dragon… er G7

And of course the G7 is having a chinwag about it all. Canada France Germany Italy Japan the UK and the US all in one room. Let's hope they can come up with a plan that's a bit more elegant than simply 'throwing money at the problem'. Although with all that firepower they'd still be able to crush any global threat. The question is will they? As I always say when the world is at stake there's no time for caution!