Winter Is Coming... To The Economy! Is Recession Inevitable?!

A Day of (Fleeting) Peace

My dragons haven't burned anyone to a crisp today and the markets… well they haven't completely collapsed. A day without new tariffs from the… *ahem*… current occupant of the Iron Throne (in a manner of speaking) is a day of cautious optimism. Or as optimistic as one can be when the Mad King… sorry wrong kingdom… when the President is involved.

White Walkers of the Economic World

The White House continues to send its emissaries much like Varys to preach the gospel of Trump's economic prowess. Kevin Hassett this man claims the U.S. will "100% not" fall into recession this year. I wonder if he's consulted the Red Priests about this prediction? Prophecies and politics a dangerous mix wouldn't you agree? Meanwhile the smallfolk – the consumers – are not so easily convinced. Their sentiment is drooping faster than a Dothraki's braids after a swim in the Narrow Sea.

Gains Fleeting as a Dragon's Breath

The markets like a nervous handmaiden made tentative gains on news of a tariff exemption for electronics. Huzzah! But let's not celebrate too soon. These gains are as fragile as a Lannister promise. Should Trump's tariffs go wilder than Drogon at a barbeque all this could turn to ash. The S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq… all up a bit. Even Europe's Stoxx 600 had a good day. Perhaps they found a new dragon glass mine?

No Recession? I'll Believe It When I See It!

Hassett claims many countries are offering “very good amazing” trade deals. Amazing you say? As amazing as a dragon hatching from stone? I remain skeptical. And this claim that there's “no chance at all” of a recession in 2025? That’s further away than Meereen! The Fed's own survey shows growing worries among the common folk – inflation unemployment the stock market… Sounds like the prelude to a long winter doesn’t it?

Volatility: More Addictive Than Wine at a Wedding

Apparently these “zero day options” are partly to blame for the stock market's mood swings. Contracts that expire the same day they're traded? Sounds like betting on a jousting match with even less predictability. UBS calls them “instrumental in driving more intraday volatility.” Translation: hold on to your hats folks! It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Fool Me Once...

Morgan Stanley warns us not to let our guard down even with these recent tariff concessions. “Investors should prepare to be fooled many more times,” they say. 'Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.' Wise words from a world that seems as chaotic as King's Landing after a wildfire incident. And as for Trump's dream of bringing supply chains back to the U.S.? A CNBC survey suggests companies are more likely to go globe trotting for low tariff havens. Cost you see is king… or perhaps *queen*.