Winter (Holiday Shopping) is Coming... But Will Tariffs Steal Christmas?

A Retailer's Song of Ice and (Tariff) Fire

Hear ye hear ye! Daenerys Stormborn of the House Targaryen First of Her Name Queen of the Andals and the Rhoynar and the First Men Queen of Meereen Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea Protector of the Realm Lady Regent Breaker of Chains and Mother of Dragons has been following whispers from across the Narrow Sea. It seems these 'tariffs' – a fancy word for taxes if you ask me – are threatening the very fabric of your holiday cheer! Like the White Walkers they creep closer threatening to freeze your Christmas spirit before it even arrives. These retailers much like the lords of Westeros are in a frenzy unsure whether to bend the knee or fight for their right to festive profits. This 'Christmas creep' they speak of? It seems even dragons can't outpace political games when it comes to stocking those shelves.

You Know Nothing Jon (Retailer)!

Word has reached my ears that your President Trump he of the golden hair has imposed tariffs on goods from China even those baubles and trinkets you adore each holiday! Some say the retailers have paused their orders fearing the impact on their gold dragons. These tariffs like the Mad King's fire could burn the supply chains to ash. But fear not! Some production has allegedly restarted. Seems they have finally realised that stopping the flow of goods is like trying to stop a Dothraki horde – messy and ultimately futile. They must produce or face the wrath of empty shelves come Black Friday! Though I'm not sure why they call it 'Black' Friday. Seems rather ominous doesn't it?

Chaos is a Ladder... of Supply Chains

This 'Cameron Johnson' fellow a Shanghai based wise man speaks of disrupted supply chains. He says that if a factory stops making spoons the whole chain suffers. It reminds me of the Great Houses – when one falls others are sure to follow. These supply chains much like the alliances in Westeros are fragile things. Replacing them overnight is like expecting the Iron Throne to be comfortable – a fool's errand. A Goldman Sachs analysis suggests some goods can only be sourced from mainland China. So unless you're planning to forge your own toys in the forges of Winterfell you're at the mercy of these trade winds. One must wonder is this all part of someone's game?

Hold the Door! (For Stockpiles)

Ah but some clever retailers anticipating trouble began stockpiling like dragons hoarding gold. Exports from China rose but imports fell. Now even those efforts are dwindling. The cargo ships once plentiful are now scarce as direwolves south of the Wall. Cancelled shipments are skyrocketing! It seems the feast is over and the winter of empty shelves may truly be coming. What is dead may never die but shipments delayed are as good as gone.

A Game of Tariffs

My informants whisper of potential tariff reliefs like crumbs thrown to starving wolves. Some U.S. buyers are hedging their bets placing smaller orders hoping for a change in fortune. 'Toysmith' a toy seller urges customers to order by May 16th to lock in current pricing. Sounds like they're playing the game of tariffs and it's a dangerous one indeed. Are they the masters of their own destiny or puppets dancing on strings?

Fire and Blood... and Increased Shipping Costs

This 'Anjoran' fellow warns that if there is a breakthrough in these trade negotiations and everyone rushes to order at once production costs and shipping prices will soar! It seems even dragons can't fly fast enough to fix that problem. So beware dear shoppers. The cost of Christmas cheer may come at a price steeper than a dragon's hoard. Perhaps 'Winter is Coming' but in this case it might be more appropriate to say 'Inflation is Coming!'