Blood and Oil: OPEC+ Plays the Game of Barrels Amidst Trump's Shadow

Winter is Coming... For Oil Prices?

My loyal subjects your Khaleesi brings tidings from a realm far removed from Westeros yet rife with its own brand of political maneuvering and dragon sized egos. It seems OPEC+ a gathering of powerful oil lords has decided to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. Apparently the 'fundamentals' are healthy though I suspect someone's been hitting the shade of the evening a bit too hard. One might say 'When you play the game of barrels you win or you die.' But in this case it seems they're all just trying to avoid dying... financially at least.

Trump's Shadow Looms Large

Word has it that this decision comes amidst falling oil prices and whispers of weakened demand. Sound familiar? Like the time the Iron Bank decided to tighten its purse strings. And wouldn't you know it the whispers also include the name of one Donald Trump. He’s practically breathing fire on these oil barons demanding more output. It seems even across the Narrow Sea they fear the tweets of this… president. He will be visiting Saudi Arabia soon so I expect many smiles... forced ones of course. Alliances shift like sand dunes in the desert.

The Saudi Hand: A Game of Thrones in the Desert

Sources whisper—and you know how I feel about whispers—that Saudi Arabia is pushing this acceleration to punish Iraq and Kazakhstan for not playing nicely with their production quotas. Imagine kingdoms squabbling over barrels of black gold! It is much like King's Landing but with less incest and more…oil. It would seem some debts *can* be paid with fire and blood.

Kazakhstan's Khaleesi Moment

Speaking of Kazakhstan their energy minister has decided that national interests outweigh the OPEC+ group. A bold move! Like when I decided to free the slaves of Meereen consequences be damned! Perhaps this minister is also a dragon in human form. Or perhaps just someone who’s tired of playing the game. You either bend the knee or you get burned...or in this case fined most likely.

The Unwinding: A Slow Burn

Remember that massive 2.2 million barrels per day output cut? Well they're slowly unwinding it bit by bit like peeling an onion—a rather pungent onion at that. At the end of June this unwinding totals 960,000 bpd which is about 44% of that total 2.2 million bpd cut. It's a 'managed' unwind as one analyst put it. Meaning it's not a war for market share just a carefully orchestrated… dance? A very boring dance indeed.

What Is Dead May Never Die... But Oil Prices Might

So what does it all mean? Well oil prices are expected to fall. And if those sellswords at UBS are right the trade tensions and economic concerns will only add fuel to the fire. Or rather subtract value from the barrel. As for me I shall keep an eye on these developments. After all power resides where men believe it resides and right now it seems to reside in the hands of those who control the flow of black gold. Dracarys!