China's Tightrope Walk: Supporting Iran While Eyeing U.S. Stumble

Up Up and A Weighing Options!

Greetings citizens of Earth! It's your friendly neighborhood Superman reporting for truth justice and the occasionally dizzying geopolitical circus. Seems like things are heating up faster than Lex Luthor's latest diabolical scheme! This time it involves China Iran and a whole lot of 'red lines' drawn in the sand. According to the Daily Planet (and some other news sources I suppose) after a series of unfortunate events involving bombs and missiles (not my doing I promise!) China is walking a tightrope. They're trying to support their buddy Iran while simultaneously keeping an eye on the prize: a potential weakening of the U.S.'s global grip.

Belt and Road...to Global Power?

Now China and Iran have been thick as thieves or perhaps more accurately thick as Kryptonite and a power suit for quite some time. A 25 year strategic partnership? That's longer than some of my battles with Doomsday! Iran's got the oil China's got the Belt and Road Initiative – a match made in... well let's just say it's a strategically convenient arrangement. It's all part of a grand plan or as the Global Times put it a way to 'counter U.S. hegemony.' Reminds me of Lex trying to counter my 'hegemony' with his latest robot. Always with the robots that guy!

The Strait of Hormuz: Not Just a Cool Name for a Rock Band

The real crux of the matter? Oil. Black gold. Texas tea. Call it what you will it's the lifeblood of the modern economy and the Strait of Hormuz is the main artery. A fifth of the world's daily oil consumption flows through that narrow passage. China relies on it heavily even employing some sneaky maneuvers to bypass sanctions. Apparently they're quite good at avoiding detection. Almost as good as I am at finding a phone booth in Metropolis! But as Evercore ISI's Neo Wang suggests China's influence is limited and their 'hands off' approach is likely a calculated one. A trade war with the U.S. means any chaos in the Middle East becomes a delightful distraction for Washington. Ah the sweet symphony of global politics!

Talk is Cheap Oil is Expensive

After the attacks on Iran China initially pledged support but quickly dialed back the rhetoric. Seems like they realized that directly condemning Israel might not be the wisest move. Instead they're pushing for dialogue and a ceasefire all while carefully avoiding any language that might ruffle too many feathers. Like trying to catch a greased pig at the county fair! As the Eurasia Group analysts point out China's playing a delicate game balancing its diplomatic alignment with Iran against its economic and strategic interests. After all nobody likes it when their investments become collateral damage!

Blockade Blues: China's Got a Plan B (and C D and E)

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is urging China to talk Iran out of closing the Strait of Hormuz. But some believe a blockade might actually benefit China. According to the Energy Information Administration China has other oil sources like Russia Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. Robin Brooks from the Brookings Institution thinks China might be secretly thrilled by an oil price spike that destabilizes the U.S. and Europe. Andrew Bishop from Signum Global Advisors echoes this sentiment. It seems they're willing to pay a premium for schadenfreude! Meanwhile Iran's parliament is all for closing the strait pending final approval. Naturally this sent oil futures soaring faster than I can fly to the moon. U.S. WTI crude and global benchmark Brent both jumped over 2%. Ka ching!

Peace Broker or Puppet Master?

China's U.N. Ambassador Fu Cong is playing the good cop calling for a ceasefire and an end to hostilities. But let's not forget the U.S. strikes on Iran conveniently handed China a talking point: It's America not China that threatens global peace. China is hoping to capitalize on its recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia positioning itself as a major peacemaker in the Middle East. But Israel is likely skeptical given China's alignment with Iran and engagement with Hamas. As Shehzad Qazi from China Beige Book put it 'China has neither offered to mediate the conflict nor offered Iran any material support. Xi wants to and will have his cake and eat it too.' Sounds like someone I know… Lex is that you in disguise again?