Iran Strait Sizzle: Hormuz Drama, Oil Prices, and Zuck's Take

Move Fast and Break…The Oil Market?

Okay so I heard Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz. Apparently after the U.S. 'tapped' into some Iranian nuclear sites the Iranian Parliament decided 'Hey let's mess with the world's oil supply!' You know typical Sunday afternoon stuff. But seriously folks if they go through with this it's like that time I tried to code a new feature overnight – ambitious but probably not the best idea. I mean who am I to judge? After all 'Move fast and break things,' right? Though in this case it's more like 'Move slowly and potentially bankrupt everyone.'

Neighbors? Who Needs 'Em When You Have Oil?

Vandana Hari from Vanda Insights is saying the chance of this happening is 'absolutely minimalistic.' Smart lady. Because if Iran does block the strait they're basically turning their neighbors into enemies faster than you can say 'pivot to video.' And who wants to tick off countries that literally have oil gushing out of the ground? It's like blocking someone on Facebook who controls the Wi Fi – strategically unwise. Remember kids be nice to your neighbors…especially if they have something you need (like you know oil).

China's Not Gonna Like This (And Neither Will My Portfolio)

And then there's China. Apparently they buy a ton of Iranian oil. Like a 'we're pretty dependent on this' amount. So if Iran shuts things down China's not gonna be sending any friend requests. Andrew Bishop from Signum Global Advisors is spot on: antagonizing China is like messing with the algorithm that keeps my stock price afloat. Not recommended. Speaking of algorithms maybe we should develop one to predict geopolitical stability. It would probably be more accurate than my metaverse avatar's legs.

Houston We Have a Chokepoint (And It's Messing With My Energy Prices)

The Strait of Hormuz is apparently the 'world's most important oil transit chokepoint.' Sounds serious. Basically 20% of the world's oil goes through this tiny little waterway. If it gets blocked expect gas prices to go up faster than my legal fees during a privacy scandal. Patrick De Haan from GasBuddy is already predicting a price hike. Thanks Iran. Just what I needed: more things to stress about while trying to figure out what to wear in the morning. (Still rocking the gray t shirt BTW.)

The Art of the Rattle: Hormuz Edition

Signum's Bishop thinks Iran's best bet is to 'rattle Hormuz oil flows just enough to hurt the U.S.' It's like that passive aggressive meme you post on Facebook hoping your ex sees it. Annoying but not quite grounds for a full blown war. S & P Global Commodity Insights says a full closure would be catastrophic affecting everyone from Saudi Arabia to your grandma's gas mileage. And don't even get me started on natural gas. Qatar's LNG exports could be toast. Toast I tell you!

Limited Options: Pipelines and Prayers

So what's the solution? More pipelines? Apparently they're not enough. Commonwealth Bank of Australia says the pipelines only have spare capacity for a fraction of what the strait handles. Looks like we're stuck relying on good old fashioned diplomacy. Or maybe I should just buy up all the oil futures and corner the market. Just kidding… mostly. Anyway Goldman Sachs is estimating a geopolitical risk premium of $12. Buckle up folks. It's gonna be a bumpy ride. And remember stay tuned for more updates brought to you by the guy who brought you… well you know.