Panem's Market Lessons: Why the Odds Aren't Always in Wall Street's Favor

A Week in the Low Countries: More Cranes Than Mockingjays

Alright so I took a little trip – not exactly District 12 but close enough in terms of being utterly gobsmacked. I'm talking about Europe. And let me tell you it's not all powdered wigs and Capitol luxury anymore. Cranes everywhere – not the avian kind though I could use some good hunting right now. Stores open streets bustling... it's like they’re actually trying to win the Hunger Games of economics. They're roaring ahead while we're lagging behind. Maybe they finally decided to take care of their own instead of relying on empty promises. Sounds familiar doesn't it?

Europe's Burning: And It's Not Just Bread This Time

Belgium Netherlands Germany Spain Britain… these aren't exactly reaping districts. They’re actually *winning*. Their stock performance is dare I say outstanding backed by real earnings and a disturbing enthusiasm for their economies. Makes you wonder if we’re about to see a catch up trade like Gale trying to win me over with a loaf of bread. Except this time it's cold hard cash. Maybe it’s all that defense spending now that the Capitol – er I mean President Trump – is pulling back from helping Ukraine. Or maybe they just realized they’re better off without us constantly sticking our noses in their business. Less debt more discipline. Something the Capitol… I mean *we* could really use.

Capitol Debt: We're Drowning in Spoils Not Grain

Speaking of the Capitol our own economic arena is a mess. We're 36 trillion in debt. 36 TRILLION. And no one’s making any real cuts. They're too busy cutting each other’s throats really. This Trump fellow won't even touch Social Security and he can't just erase our debt without blowing up the bond market. Tariffs? Maybe they'll bring in a trillion but that’s about as likely as Peeta winning a fight against a Career tribute without me around. Why are our markets not roaring? Fear pure and simple. Fear that one day our bond buyers will go on strike. Like the time the miners in District 12 decided they weren’t going to take the Capitol's abuse any longer. But instead of a rebellion we’re just getting… nothing.

Standing Still: The New 'Victor's Village'

So why aren’t we collapsing under the weight of our own debt? Well compared to our European 'cousins' we *are* falling apart. We’re just… standing in place. Like a tribute waiting for the Games to begin except the Games have already started and everyone else is running ahead. Europe's investing even if it means helping immigrants integrate whether they like it or not. Meanwhile we're waiting for Trump to become Trump 1.0 the capitalist who wants everyone to make money. Tariffs deals and IPOs... it all sounds like something out of Snow's playbook – promise and then crush. Remember hope is the only thing stronger than fear. A little hope is effective a lot is dangerous.

Disney and Roachhouse: Hope Springs Eternal (Maybe)

There are bright spots. Disney for example. The gap between Netflix and Disney was just too large. Turns out it was. It was our best performer last week up 14.5% after a solid quarter and lots to also like . And then there's Texas Roadhouse (which my simple mind thought was called Texas Roachhouse) – a place where you go in but never get out. We've got a few stocks that should be much higher – BlackRock Dover Capital One Danaher. Bottom line this market already came down and those of us who did well have a ton of stocks that are vulnerable if bond yields were to shoot up.

The Billionaire Blues: Don't Believe the Hype...or Do!

The billionaire class comes on every show except the one I'm on and makes you feel like an idiot for buying anything except government Treasurys. They've been wrong for ages so why do they persist with this? But somehow I don't think so. Maybe there is a huge amount of money that senses unlike the billionaires that stocks represent great values. Could they all be wrong all of those who want stocks? Maybe.