Even the 'Worst Business' Can Be a Mockingjay: How One Investor Made a Killing on a Rubbish Stock

Happy Hunger Games! And May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor... to Buy the Worst?

Alright folks Katniss Everdeen here your resident District 12 financial analyst – who knew right? I just read about this Simon Adler character a value investor at Schroders. Apparently he's quoted as saying "We are happy to buy the worst business you have ever conceived provided it is cheap enough." Sounds like something Haymitch would say after a few too many drinks but surprisingly it checks out. He's literally out there looking for the Peetas of the stock market – the ones everyone else overlooks thinking they're too damaged to be of any use.

Saipem: From Mockingstock to Money Maker

Adler even admits he bought into this Italian oilfield services company called Saipem back in 2022 calling it a "truly rubbish" stock. Reminds me of the state of District 12 before... well you know. Turns out Saipem was so bad they couldn't even sell their shares on the open market. The banks were stuck with them like sponsors stuck with a tribute nobody wants to back. But Adler that crafty fox saw an opportunity. He swooped in like a mockingjay after a dropped berry and offered them pennies on the dollar. They turned him down at first probably laughing. But he kept at it like me trying to get Prim a decent goat until they finally caved.

Sixty Cents and a Prayer: How Adler Beat the Odds

He eventually got them at 60 cents a share. Sixty cents! That's less than the price of a loaf of stale bread in the Capitol. And guess what? The stock rallied over 100% soon after. Adler doubled his clients' money in three months. Three months! That's faster than it takes Peeta to bake a decent loaf. Turns out Saipem was recovering from the pandemic oil price crash. Who knew the market was so easily pleased? Honestly it's almost as fickle as the Capitol audience during the Games.

The Market Turns: Even Wall Street Likes the Odds Now

Now get this: Wall Street analysts are actually bullish on Saipem! They're saying there's still upside. One analyst at RBC Capital Markets even has a price target of €3.40. Who would have thought? It's like the whole world decided to start wearing mockingjay pins. Even after Adler sold his shares the company's doing well. They're making money paying dividends and even talking about merging with another company. It's a regular Cinderella story except instead of a glass slipper it's an oil rig.

Risk is Like Fire: If You Control It It Can Cook for You

Of course there's still risk. The analysts point out that the stock has taken a hit recently due to macroeconomic factors whatever those are. Sounds like Capitol nonsense to me. But the company seems to be holding steady. Adler meanwhile is still out there hunting for the next Saipem. He says he'd rather buy good quality businesses but if you want the cheapest you have to look at everything. It's like scavenging in the woods – sometimes you find berries sometimes you find poisonous nightlock. You just have to know the difference.

The Moral of the Story: Sometimes the Biggest Risk is Not Taking One

So what's the takeaway here? Well sometimes the things that look the worst are actually hidden opportunities. Maybe it's a dying oilfield services company or maybe it's a girl from District 12 who nobody expects to win the Hunger Games. Either way it pays to look beneath the surface and see what's really there. Because sometimes even the "truly rubbish" can become a mockingjay rising from the ashes and changing everything. And remember: "If we burn you burn with us!"