Trump's Rate Expectations: A GoldenEye View from the Fed Front

The Name's Trump Rate Hiker

Right so the usual suspects are at it again. Seems Mr. Trump our man of the hour (or should I say former hour) is back at his old game nudging the Fed to play ball. Just like a Bond villain with a penchant for economic meddling. "Lower the rates!" he cries probably while stroking a Persian cat. The audacity! Though I must admit seeing markets dance to his tune is almost as entertaining as watching Oddjob’s hat do its dirty work.

A Job Report to Thrill... or Not?

April's job numbers came in like a well timed explosion—surprising but effective. 177,000 jobs added exceeding expectations. Not bad not bad at all. Of course it's less than March's revised figures but who's counting? It's like ordering a Martini – sometimes you get a little more sometimes a little less but as long as it hits the spot one shouldn't complain right? Well apparently some do complain.

Powell: License to Ignore?

Enter Mr. Jerome Powell the Fed chair and seemingly impervious to pressure. Trump's been trying to influence him like Goldfinger trying to influence the gold market. Rumours flew faster than a speeding Aston Martin that Trump might try to give Powell the boot. Powell bless his soul stands firm. It seems he knows a thing or two about job security and a thing or two about not bending to pressure.

Shaken Not Stirred Markets

All this back and forth caused quite the kerfuffle in the markets. Sell offs index slumps the U.S. dollar taking a hit – it was like watching a high stakes poker game. On the 21st of April fear gripped the markets like Blofeld’s cat clinging to his lap. Investors hate uncertainty more than I hate a badly made Martini. Nowadays Trump sings a different tune. Says he has "no intention" of firing Powell and dials back his criticisms.

Blame Game: The World Is Not Enough

And then there's the blame game. The U.S. economy hiccuped for the first time since 2022 and naturally the previous guy gets the rap. Classic move really. It's like blaming Q for a gadget malfunction – convenient but hardly fair. Trump is willing to shift the blame just like I'm willing to shift the blame to the barman when my martini tastes like swamp water. But perhaps Trump shouldn't get ahead of himself. After all as Auric Goldfinger wisely put it: 'Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.'

A View to a Rate Cut

So there you have it. Mr. Trump wants lower rates the Fed remains independent and the markets are having a field day. It's all a bit of a circus really. But then again what isn't these days? Now if you'll excuse me I have a date with a Vesper Martini and a world to save. After all nobody does it better.