Shaken, Not Stirred: Dimon Predicts Economic Turbulence Ahead

The Writing's on the Wall Old Boy

Right then 00 Nation. Seems our American cousins are facing a spot of bother. Jamie Dimon the big cheese at JPMorgan Chase is sounding the alarm. Apparently all that lovely government spending and loose monetary policy that kept the yanks afloat during the unpleasantness is starting to fade faster than a Bond girl's affections. According to Dimon this leaves the U.S. economy rather vulnerable. A bit like Blofeld after I've had my way with his volcano lair. Personally I think they should've invested in more Aston Martins but what do I know?

Confidence? I've Got Plenty

Dimon downplays the survey data you see and the weakening confidence of consumers and business leaders. He says 'Neither consumers nor businesses ever pick the inflection points.' Well that's one thing we have in common. I never rely on hunches just pure unadulterated 007 intuition. But I digress; he's suggesting that the 'soft landing' they're hoping for will be bumpier than a ride with Pussy Galore. Employment's set to dip inflation's going to rise – hopefully only a tad he says. Good luck with that Jamie.

Immigration Woes and Martini Flows

Apparently lower levels of immigration are adding to the confusion. A bit like trying to decipher Oddjob's instructions after a few martinis. Always a headache. This Dimon chap though he's been singing this cautious tune since 2006. A bit like Goldfinger and his gold obsession some things never change. The most recent figures do show things slowing down a bit though. Job growth and inflation are starting to falter so maybe he's onto something.

Private Credit: Risky Business?

And there's more! Dimon's got his eye on private credit a booming business on Wall Street that could go south quicker than you can say 'vodka martini shaken not stirred'. He reckons the risks are different for the banks versus the investors. Banks just line up the deals and ship them off faster than I can disarm a nuclear bomb. Investors on the other hand are stuck with those long term returns hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

Don't Buy The Dip Old Sport!

Dimon's advice? 'Do I think that now is a good time to buy credit if I was a fund manager? No. I wouldn't be buying credit today at these prices and these spreads.' So there you have it. Straight from the horse's mouth. It seems like a good time to sit tight keep your Walther PPK close and maybe invest in a good solid bottle of Bollinger. After all 'Bond. James Bond' knows how to weather any storm.

License to Illiquidity?

In short the American economy is facing headwinds that could lead to choppy waters ahead. Best to be prepared. As I always say 'sufficient precautions should be taken'. Or perhaps in this case 'sufficient precautions should be traded'. Now if you'll excuse me I have a plane to catch and a villain to foil. Mustn't keep the world waiting.