China's Trade War Gambit Does Beijing Have a GoldenEye for Global Domination?!

License to Export!

Well well well what do we have here? Seems China decided to unleash its inner Goldfinger in March with exports jumping a rather robust 12.4%. Quite a leap wouldn't you say? Clearly someone's been hitting the gym... or perhaps just front loading shipments to dodge those pesky American tariffs. A pre emptive strike if you will. One might say they were living and letting export as they tried to get ahead of the game. But the game as always is afoot.

Diamonds Are Forever But Tariffs? Not So Much

Imports however are singing a different tune. Down 4.3% suggesting the Chinese consumer is about as enthusiastic as Blofeld at a Tupperware convention. It seems even the allure of a bargain basement bargain can't tempt them to open their wallets. 'We have all the time in the world,' they seem to be saying to their yuan. Domestic demand clearly needs a shaken not stirred injection of vitality.

The World Is Not Enough (Growth That Is)

Ah the Chinese leadership aiming for that elusive 5% growth target. Ambitious to say the least given the escalating trade kerfuffle. The Americans led by a certain orange faced SPECTRE operative have slapped on tariffs like Bond girls slap Bond – frequently and with considerable force. Zhiwei Zhang from Pinpoint Asset Management predicts 'chaos' and 'potential shortage in the U.S.' He forgot to add 'shaken not stirred'!

From Russia With Tariffs

Tit for tat tariffs you say? Sounds like a schoolyard brawl with economic consequences. The Americans are throwing punches the Chinese are retaliating with a 125% haymaker. It's enough to make even Q reach for a stiff drink. But let's be honest no one wins in a trade war. It's like a Bond villain's lair – lots of flash but ultimately self destructive.

Die Another Day (For Reciprocal Tariffs)

A glimmer of hope perhaps? The Trump administration in a moment of unexpected clarity granted reprieves for reciprocal tariffs on electronics. One might call it a 'small step' in the right direction though I suspect the Chinese are hoping for a full retreat. As always in the world of trade Never Say Never Again.

A View to a Stimulus

The pressure is on for China to unleash some serious stimulus. They need to get those consumers spending and reduce reliance on exports. Investment banks are slashing growth forecasts faster than I can seduce a double agent. Goldman Sachs the spoilsports expect just 4.0% growth. Let's hope the Politburo has a few gadgets up its sleeve to counter this trade shock. After all nobody does it better… except maybe Bond.