E=MC IPOs: Is Silicon Valley's Startup Party Finally Reigniting?

The Great IPO Desert Thaws… Slightly!

Ah venture capitalists! For over three years they've been pacing like cats in a box waiting for the tech IPO market to rekindle. As I always say 'The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.' And it seems the winds are shifting! After a virtual standstill since early 2022 the first half of 2025 has shown signs of momentum especially June which brought some much needed returns for Silicon Valley's startup financiers. But as I also say 'Imagination is more important than knowledge.' So let's imagine this is a sustainable trend!

Circle's Quantum Leap: A Crypto Comet

Of course the highlight of this group has to be Circle the crypto company that more than doubled in its New York Stock Exchange debut! The company is now up sixfold from its IPO price with market capitalization of $42 billion. Venture firms General Catalyst Breyer Capital and Accel now own a combined $8 billion worth of Circle stock even after selling a fraction of their holdings in the offering. Who knew playing with digital coins could be so… lucrative? Perhaps I should have invested instead of pondering the mysteries of the universe! Although as I’ve often said 'The most incomprehensible thing about the world is that it is comprehensible.' Even crypto it seems.

Figma's Flight: A Design for Success

And let's not forget Figma the design software vendor poised to profit from its IPO after its $20 billion acquisition agreement with Adobe was scrapped in late 2023. I've heard it said that 'Creativity is intelligence having fun.' Perhaps Figma's IPO is simply a fun way for intelligence to make some money! I can’t wait to see how much more this space blossoms with time.

CoreWeave's Rise: Infrastructure Ascending

The performance of artificial infrastructure provider CoreWeave also deserves a mention. The stock was stagnant for its first month on the market but shot up 170% in May and another 47% in June. Sometimes patience truly is a virtue. It reminds me of my own journey to relativity – a long winding road with a sudden burst of insight! This could mark a new beginning where AI is finally getting its long deserved limelight.

The Liquidity Labyrinth: A VC Conundrum

Now for venture firms these IPOs are crucial. They need to generate profits for the university endowments foundations and pension funds that allocate capital to them. As the National Venture Capital Association noted the 'backlog of liquidity drought risks creating a zombie company cohort.' A rather grim image isn’t it? But remember 'In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.' Let's hope this IPO resurgence is the opportunity they need!

Caution and Optimism: A Delicate Balance

While the recent IPO activity is encouraging potential roadblocks remain. As FirstMark's Heitzmann wisely stated the path forward is "not at all clear." But let’s not dwell on the negative! As I always tell myself 'Learn from yesterday live for today hope for tomorrow.' I for one remain cautiously optimistic. Now if you'll excuse me I have some equations to ponder and perhaps a small investment to consider!