Israel-Iran Tensions? Market Shrugs. I Never Shrug.

Another Day Another 'Threat'

So I hear the market's acting like the Israel Iran situation is just another game of HORSE. Stocks are up oil's down gold's taking a breather. Reminds me of the time I let the other team think they had a chance just to crush 'em in the fourth. But this ain't basketball folks. This is about real stakes. Don't tell me everyone's suddenly become a pacifist investor. I guess everyone is now trading like Kwame Brown and not like MJ.

Traders Playing Checkers Not Chess

Apparently these traders are betting this whole thing won't blow up into a full scale disaster. They're saying Iran's signaling it wants to end the fight. Well color me skeptical. Everyone wants to end the fight... after they've landed the knockout punch. It is like saying Lebron is better than me; just doesn't make sense. These guys are betting on a prayer and I never leave anything to chance.

Oil's Well That Ends...When?

Deutsche Bank's pointing out that oil prices haven't gone completely bonkers yet. Brent crude jumped but it's still below the yearly average. So no inflationary panic yet. But let's be real if the Strait of Hormuz gets shut down we're talking triple digit oil prices faster than you can say 'Space Jam'. I am glad I invested in Tesla early maybe I should invest in oil now.

The Strait of Hormuz: The Real MVP

This Strait of Hormuz is the real MVP here. Twenty percent of the world's oil flows through that thing. If it gets disrupted forget about your stock portfolio; we'll be bartering for gasoline. Goldman's analysts don't think it's likely. But I didn't think Isiah Thomas would keep me off the Dream Team either. Never underestimate the potential for chaos.

Risk Premium: Priced In or Ignored?

Citigroup's Max Layton thinks there's already a hefty risk premium baked into oil prices like $10 $12. So the market's not totally asleep at the wheel. But is it enough? I always played like I was down by twenty even when I was up by twenty. Complacency is the enemy people.

The Long Game: Still Bearish?

OPEC's increasing production which is keeping oil prices somewhat in check. Layton's 12 month forecast for Brent is still $65. That's bearish folks. But in the long run anything can happen. Remember when everyone thought the Pistons were gonna beat us in '89? Yeah about that... I am always here to win and I am always right.