NATO's 5 Percent Fracas: A Wildlife Documentary in the Corridors of Power

A Gathering of Giants: The Annual Mating Ritual

Ah the annual NATO summit a gathering not unlike the great wildebeest migration. Here we observe powerful nations converging each with their own agenda their own territorial imperatives. This year the air is thick with tension a palpable anticipation as the United States in a display reminiscent of a dominant silverback is pushing its allies to commit a staggering 5% of their GDP to defense. Five percent! One can almost hear the collective intake of breath from the smaller more financially timid nations.

The Trump Effect: A Ghost from the Past

Donald Trump a name that still echoes through these hallowed halls like the roar of a particularly disgruntled lion is back. He who once demanded a doubling of spending to 4% now watches from the sidelines as the debate rages on. It’s a familiar script. 'Cooperate or face the consequences!' one can almost hear him bellowing much like a bull elephant warning off rivals. And yet despite his absence from the immediate scene the needle has moved. In 2018 only a handful of nations met the 2% threshold; now over 20 do. The wheels of progress like those of a Galapagos tortoise turn slowly but surely.

The 5% Proposition: A Bridge Too Far?

But 5%? That’s a different beast altogether. It’s a figure that has some nations salivating eager to flex their military muscles while others… well let's just say they’re looking for loopholes the size of the Grand Canyon. It seems some allies are more interested in the '1.5% for security related infrastructure' loophole which could include just about anything. “'Yeah 5% but it’s really 3.5% and 1.5% and that can be pretty much anything',” says Kurt Volker a former US ambassador to NATO. It’s the diplomatic equivalent of a chameleon changing its colors to blend in.

The High Stakes Game: A Global Chessboard

The stakes are undeniably high. With conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East the global stage resembles a precarious chessboard each move threatening to topple the delicate balance. This year's summit some say could be the most consequential in NATO's 77 year history. It’s a critical juncture where decisions made could ripple across the world affecting everything from trade to security to dare I say it the very survival of some of the species we hold dear. As I always say “It seems to me that the natural world is the greatest source of excitement; the greatest source of visual beauty; the greatest source of intellectual interest. It is the greatest source of so much in life that makes life worth living.”

Europe's Dilemma: Between Pledges and Procurement

European defense companies find themselves in a peculiar predicament akin to a birdwatcher spotting a rare avian species but lacking binoculars. They are keen they are ready but they need commitment cold hard procurement contracts to justify scaling up production. “We can do more,” says Micael Johansson CEO of Saab “but we need to come together in Europe to create more scale also in what we do to align demand align requirements so we can actually be a competitive player internationally.” It’s a chorus echoing across the continent a plea for clarity for action for a roadmap to navigate these turbulent waters.

The Supply Chain Jungle: A Tangled Web

And let us not forget the intricate almost unfathomable supply chains that underpin the defense industry. Roberto Cingolani CEO of Leonardo paints a vivid picture of a global network spanning 160 countries involving some 5000 companies. “You have to invest in supply chain. You have to make investments. You have to protect the supply chain. But of course we also have to face a shortage of raw materials,” he laments. It's a stark reminder that even in the realm of high tech warfare the delicate balance of nature of resource availability still holds sway. Truly a sobering thought as these powerful nations gather to decide the fate of the world and as I always say “No one will protect what they don't care about; and no one will care about what they have never experienced.”