Commodity Price EXPLOSION! Will Gold Reach $4000?!

The Whispers of a Super Cycle: Is It Real?

Ah the commodities market! A world as unpredictable as a startled flock of flamingos. Over the past week global markets have been teetering gripped by the… shall we say *unconventional* trade policies of the United States. But amidst this volatility whispers of a 'super cycle' have begun to circulate. Now what is a super cycle you may ask? Imagine if you will a prolonged period of price hikes a sort of… Everest of inflation far beyond the gentle hills we normally expect. The last time we witnessed such a phenomenon was in the mid 2000s driven by China's ravenous appetite for resources. But this time the potential scale is dare I say quite 'Attenboroughian' in its magnitude!

Trump's Tariffs: A Butterfly Flapping its Wings?

Philippe Gijsels a chap with a penchant for studying economic trends believes Trump's return to the Oval Office and the tariffs that have since been levied have strengthened his conviction that we are at the beginning of a commodities super cycle. He believes 'metal shocks' will soon come into play putting the price of some metals on an upward trajectory. Gold silver copper the very stuff that makes our modern world tick! Gijsels sees spot gold hitting $4,000 an ounce within the next couple of years. A bold claim! As we know a safe haven for investors but will this rally be enough to keep up with this rapidly changing world. Time will tell…

A Golden Opportunity? Or Fool's Gold?

Our friend Gijsels expects silver to jump around 59% from Friday's spot price. He predicts copper could double or triple in price. He believes that despite market jitters around a possible trade war he sees conditions for these commodities remaining "very favorable." “I would see every pullback as a nice entry point,” he said. “I am still bullish on all three of them. They will go way higher than most people will be willing to believe.”

Climate Change and Your Cup of Joe: A Bitter Brew?

It's not just metals that are stirring the pot. Soft commodities like coffee and cocoa are also expected to rise. “They're going to go higher because of climate change,” Gijsels told CNBC. “If you look at cocoa 51% [is produced in the] Ivory Coast alone so you're very vulnerable in your supply. [And] longer term soft commodities are going to go up because you have a population that is increasing as well.” The plight of the cocoa bean! A tiny seed yet so vulnerable to the whims of a changing climate. It is a reminder that even our daily rituals are intertwined with the fate of the planet. "It seems to me that the natural world is the greatest source of excitement; the greatest source of visual beauty; the greatest source of intellectual interest. It is the greatest source of so much in life that makes life worth living." a sentiment that grows ever more poignant.

The Ripple Effect: From Gadgets to Groceries

Pat Kennedy of AllSource Investments warns that companies may struggle to absorb the rising costs of Trump's tariffs. This translates of course to higher prices for consumers. He notes we can expect to witness the immediate effects of these price hikes in electronics like laptops smartphones tablets and other gadgets,” he said. “Additionally clothing toys and groceries will also be affected. Ah the intricate web of global trade! A single policy decision can send ripples across the world impacting everything from the gadgets in our pockets to the food on our plates. It is a stark reminder of our interconnectedness and the delicate balance of the global ecosystem.

A Word of Caution: Not Everyone Agrees

Not everyone is convinced of a commodities boom. André Castro Silva an economics professor remains skeptical arguing that a global recession could actually decrease commodity prices particularly those related to construction. A tariff usually hurts only the country that imposes it and would not change international commodity prices [but] the difference is the magnitude of the change and the signal that the U.S. doesn't value international trade anymore,” he told CNBC via email. “This change increases the risk of a recession. A global recession decreases the prices of all commodities. Commodities related to construction such as copper would have a stronger decrease.” As always the future remains uncertain. “An understanding of the natural world and what's in it is a source of not only a great curiosity but great fulfilment,” so let us all seek to understand what is to come.