A Most Singular Situation Indeed
The game my dear readers is afoot and this time it unfolds not in the fog laden streets of London but on the grand chessboard of international trade. The Middle Kingdom China has issued a warning sharp as a shard of glass to those nations considering aligning themselves too closely with the Yankee President Trump in this tariff laden squabble. It appears the East is not amused by any perceived 'deal at the expense of China's interests,' a sentiment they express with the subtlety of a charging rhinoceros.
The Law of the Jungle or a Game of Chicken
According to sources the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has cautioned about the risk to all countries once international trade returns to the 'law of the jungle.' One might say this is akin to threatening to unleash Moriarty on the world of commerce. A bold strategy if one is confident in their position. But as I've often said 'It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.'
Unilateral Bullying! Really?
The Chinese in what I can only describe as a masterful stroke of irony have sought to paint themselves as the champions of 'international fairness and justice,' while decrying the 'abusing tariffs' and 'unilateral bullying' of the United States. It's a bit like Moriarty accusing me of being overly fond of deduction is it not? The audacity is almost impressive if not entirely convincing.
Tit for Tat Tariff for Tariff
Of course this is not merely sabre rattling. China has already retaliated with tariffs of its own and has taken measures to restrict critical mineral exports and blacklist certain American companies. A game of tit for tat played out on a global scale. One wonders if either side has considered that as I once observed 'When you have eliminated the impossible whatever remains however improbable must be the truth.'
A Diplomatic Dance of Dragons
President Xi Jinping has embarked on a diplomatic tour visiting Vietnam Malaysia and Cambodia calling for joint efforts against tariffs and 'unilateral bullying.' This is without a doubt a cunning move to consolidate support and perhaps find alternative trade routes. It reminds me of a complex chess match where each move must be carefully considered lest one expose one's own king to danger. As my dear Watson might say "Data data data! I can’t make bricks without clay!"
The Waiting Game and A Change in Guard
Analysts those creatures of cautious conjecture do not foresee a swift resolution to this trade impasse. China has even filed a lawsuit against the U.S. with the WTO! Furthermore China's Ministry of Commerce has replaced its top international trade negotiator with Li Chenggang. The pieces are being moved the players are settling in and the world holds its breath. One thing is certain: the next few months will be nothing short of elementary my dear readers. The great question is not whether there will be an outcome but whether the involved parties will like the outcome at the end of the day.
China US Trade War Tariffs Retaliation Global Trade Economics International Relations Trade Negotiations Protectionism Geopolitics
Comments
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azz86
This is what happens when you trust politicians.
caliman78
Maybe we should all just go back to bartering.
frosty3007
Elementary, my dear Watson, elementary!
stormer40
Someone get Sherlock Holmes on the case!
Blezx
I'm stocking up on canned goods.
djohio34
China is playing a dangerous game.
LilyOak
Data, data, data! We need more data!
giggles81974
This is a disaster for global trade.
lulu412
Is this the beginning of a new Cold War?