Vodafone's 'Inflection Point': Deja Vu or Destined for Glory?

Déjà Vu All Over Again?

¡Che qué quilombo! Vodafone's full year results last week felt like watching Argentina in a penalty shootout – full of hope but with a familiar sinking feeling. Their Chief Executive Margherita Della Valle declared they're at an 'inflection point.' Now where have I heard that before? Ah yes! It's like hearing 'this is our year' from England fans before the World Cup. Remember when they said that in 2019? Or even back in 2015? It's enough to make you want to hide under the stands with a mate and a fernet and coke! This company's history of disappointing investors is longer than my list of Ballon d'Or nominations. And that's saying something eh?

From Thatcher to Takeovers: A British Saga

Vodafone's journey mirrors the UK's from Thatcher's privatization push to Blair's global ambitions. They were the kings of mobile acquiring Airtouch for a sum that makes my Barcelona salary look like pocket change and then swallowing Mannesmann whole. That was the biggest takeover by a British company ever! They were top of the FTSE the undisputed champions. Now? Let's just say they're not quite challenging for the title anymore. More like battling for a Champions League spot hoping for a miracle.

Record Losses and Retreats: Ouch!

After years of expanding like my trophy cabinet Vodafone started shrinking. They sold assets wrote down values… it was like watching your favorite player get sold to a rival club. In 2006 they reported a loss bigger than my ego after winning a Clasico! They bailed from the U.S. and more recently Italy and Spain. Sometimes you have to know when to cut your losses. As they say in Rosario 'No siempre se gana.' (You don't always win.)

Germany and the UK: Still in the Game

However Germany and the UK remain key markets. In Germany they bought Liberty Global's cable assets becoming a major player. And in the UK they finally merged with Three UK reducing competition. Hopefully this will be a game changer. Imagine if Barcelona Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid suddenly became two teams – that's the kind of shake up we're talking about! This merger is vital because the returns in the UK market are low. If the UK government and Vodafone can score here the next few years will be interesting.

Share Buybacks and Banker Bonanzas

While shareholders might not be doing cartwheels brokers are loving it. Vodafone's doing share buybacks – like me buying everyone in the team a fancy steak dinner after winning the Champions League. And investment bankers are raking in fees. They're hoping for more mergers which is great for them but what about us fans – I mean investors? Della Valle claims they're at an 'inflection point'. She says they're simpler outperforming rivals and improving customer experience. But so far this is all talk. 'Hay que demostrarlo en la cancha!' (You have to show it on the pitch!).

Africa and the Future: Will It Click?

Vodafone's also betting on Africa and Turkey. Africa makes up 20% of their revenues and is expected to grow. Turkey is another promising market. But honestly Vodafone can be frustrating. They prefer to focus on 'EBITDAal' – a measurement so complicated it makes offside rules look simple! There's always something dragging them down from hyperinflation to cable TV contract changes. Germany is crucial and if their economy improves Vodafone should benefit. But after so many false dawns investors are wise to be cautious. Me? I'm sticking to kicking goals. It is always simpler than business.