Bitcoin Victory Lap Or Fool's Errand Find Out If Your Crypto Is Cleaning Its Room!

Buckle Up Buttercup: Bitcoin's Wild Ride

Right so the markets have been behaving like a toddler who's had too much sugar. Bitcoin that digital rascal seems to have held its own relatively speaking. Up 5.4% for the week? Not bad considering the S&P 500 was only slightly ahead. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. As I always say 'Pet that dragon until you have it under complete control.' We need to look at the whole damn picture before we start crowning Bitcoin as the next digital messiah.

Digital Gold Or Fool's Gold? The Eternal Question

Now some are chirping about Bitcoin becoming 'digital gold.' That's a tidy narrative isn't it? But remember narratives can be seductive traps. One chap Garrison Yang says he doesn't buy the global hedge idea. He thinks if equities tank Bitcoin will follow suit. It's a perfectly valid point you know. It is like saying that tidying your room will solve all of your life problems when we know that the bloody room will become messy again pretty damn quick.

Tariffs Trade Wars and the Fed: Oh My!

Then comes the political mess. Trump's trade plan sent markets into a tailspin then he offered a 90 day reprieve. You see! Order and chaos dance together constantly you know? Thomas Perfumo from Kraken says U.S. China trade and Fed rate decisions are key for Bitcoin. Well no kidding. The future is shaped by the complex interplay of order and chaos like a well organized bookshelf that's on fire.

Technical Analysis: Glimmers Of Hope and Doom

From a technical angle Wolfe Research says Bitcoin could retest the $70,000 level. One out of nine bullish indicators are active. Only one! It is a dire sign you know. The thing remains above its 365 day moving average. A sustained break below that and we're staring into the abyss of a bear market. It is like failing to clean your room because your parents forced you to clean it: The result is not sustainable and you fail.

Volatility: Subdued? Or Just Numb?

Bitcoin's pops and drops were relatively subdued comparatively this week. Some see this as maturity. I see it as... potentially a sign of something even more ominous. Down 30% from its January peak? Nvidia and Apple fell even further! But remember that Bitcoin peak to trough drawdown in 2021 was almost 50%. Don't think that is a one off...it is just waiting to happen again.

Whales Miners and ETFs: The Players

CryptoQuant says short term traders sold off Bitcoin to take advantage of the volatility. Whales moved 71,000 Bitcoin after the tariff announcement. That is a shit ton of cash you know? Miners sold big time earlier in the week. The institutional demand via Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy is there. So you are seeing a shift. Is Bitcoin going to be the next store of value asset? That is what Perfumo says. I guess we will see but first clean your room.