Tesla's Tumble: Is Elon Playing Chicken with the Wrong Guy?

Deliveries Down? Not a Problem for a Short Seller

Alright let's break this down. Tesla's stock is taking a hit down 7% because Wall Street is whimpering about delivery numbers. 387,000 vehicles? A 13% drop? Cry me a river. Remember what I always say: 'What's the point of having fuck you money if you can't say fuck you?' Musk is probably laughing all the way to the bank or better yet Mars. These analysts they’re always looking in the rearview mirror not seeing the whole damn road. I see opportunity where they see decline. Short it maybe? Just thinking out loud.

Robotaxis and Twitter Wars: Elon's Double Edged Sword

So Musk rolls out a robotaxi service – cute. Announces some ‘driverless delivery’ – even cuter. But then he decides to pick a fight with Trump. Classic Musk. Always gotta have a foil. A real Alpha move right? Only problem is Trump's got the power to squeeze. Musk is playing chess but Trump is playing… well it's hard to say what Trump is doing but it involves a wrecking ball that's for sure. Remember 'A person sees an opportunity and they take it. I just see them sooner.' And I see Musk potentially overplaying his hand.

The One Big Beautiful Bill: More Like One Big Beautiful Headache

This 'One Big Beautiful Bill' – sounds like something Trump would name after himself doesn't it? It's gonna benefit the rich slash Medicaid and food assistance – the usual. Musk is whining about the deficit and renewable energy cuts. Look I respect a guy who stands for something but let's be real. This is about Tesla’s bottom line. 'I like looking at damage,' I always say but this could actually affect the whole damn market. Government interference – always a pain in the ass whether it's for or against you.

Trump's Revenge: Is Musk About to Get Axed?

Ah the plot thickens. Trump claims Musk is 'upset that he's losing his EV mandate.' You think? And then comes the threat: 'He could lose a lot more than that.' Now that's a threat. Trump's talking about subsidies incentives government contracts. SpaceX getting $22 billion since 2008? Tesla banking on regulatory credits? That's real money. And it all depends on the whims of Washington. This is where the rubber meets the road boys and girls. This is the kind of stuff I live for. High stakes high rewards… and a whole lot of risk.

Regulatory Credits: The Secret Sauce or a House of Cards?

Tesla's been raking in billions from these 'automotive regulatory credits' – basically selling clean air to polluters. It's like selling indulgences to the modern world. According to some CEO at FedScout these credits made up 60% of Tesla's net income last quarter. Sixty percent! That's not a business; that's a subsidy farm. And farms get ploughed under when the political winds change. 'Money makes people see things differently,' and right now Musk is seeing a very different landscape and it might be less green than he thinks.

The Long Game: Always Play to Win

So what's the play here? Musk needs to decide if he wants to be a revolutionary or a government contractor. He can't be both. Trump needs to decide if he wants to punish a perceived enemy or foster innovation. It is all about the long game always. As for me I'll be watching from the sidelines maybe placing a few bets. Because in this game 'the best revenge is success.' And I intend to have plenty of it.