Zuckerberg's Tariff Tango: Is Trump Cutting Into Meta's Bottom Line?

First Blood or First Quarter?

Alright folks let's talk Meta. Zuckerberg's crew is about to drop their Q1 numbers and Wall Street's all twitchy wondering if Trump's trade war is about to turn into a Zuckerberg beatdown. Analysts are predicting $5.28 EPS and $41.39 billion in revenue. Sounds impressive right? But there's always a 'but,' isn't there? Like a bad investment or a rival firm's attempt at a hostile takeover something is about to spoil the party.

The China Syndrome (of Disappearing Ad Dollars)

The whispers on the street or rather the screams in the trading pits are that Meta's China ad revenue is about to take a hit. Seems those fast fashion empires like Temu and Shein who practically live on Facebook ads are tightening their belts. They are slashing those ad spends faster than I can short a failing stock. China makes up a hefty chunk of Meta's pie – 11% or $18.35 billion last year. If those China linked ad dollars keep shrinking because of Trump's tariffs we're talking a potential $7 billion revenue hit in 2025. Seven. Billion. That's real money even for Zuck.

Asia Pacific Rim Job (for Revenue)

Analysts are bracing for Meta to report $8.54 billion in Asia Pacific sales. It will give an idea of the scale of the problem that Meta is facing. Google already hinted at headwinds from Asia. Philipp Schindler at Google is playing it coy saying it's too early to get a specific view on the economy in Q2 but if Google is worried you know something is brewing.

Intel's Not Feeling the Love

Intel's CFO David Zinsner is sounding more like a doomsayer warning about the "very fluid trade policies" and regulatory risks increasing the odds of a recession. 'The probability of a recession is growing' he said... Now I'm not one to panic over every little hiccup but when a chip giant like Intel starts talking about a recession you gotta wonder if the market is as solid as a Wendy Rhoades negotiation strategy or more like a poorly timed Axe Capital investment.

AI Dreams and Tariff Nightmares

And let's not forget Zuck's pet project: Artificial Intelligence. Meta is pouring billions into AI with analysts expecting $14.32 billion in capital expenditures this quarter alone. Will Trump's tariffs throw a wrench in the works? Can Zuck keep innovating while dodging tariff bullets? Time will tell. He will have to be careful to avoid becoming another Lehman Brothers in the making.

The Numbers Game

Finally the headline number: 3.39 billion daily active people are expected to be logged. So are people still mindlessly scrolling through Facebook while the world burns? Looks like it. As I always say: What is the point of having fuck you money if you can't say fuck you?