Dollar General: A Curious Bloom in Trump's Economic Savanna

A Peculiar Oasis in a Shifting Landscape

Here we observe in the first 100 days of President Trump's second term a rather unexpected phenomenon. Dollar General of all things has become one of the best performing stocks. Yes you heard correctly. While others falter this discounter has soared like a desert bloom after a rare rain. Since January 20th its shares have risen more than 36% nestling it among the S&P 500's high fliers just behind Palantir and the titans of tobacco Philip Morris International. Remarkable isn't it? As I always say 'The question is are we happy to suppose that our grandchildren may never be able to see an elephant except in a picture book?' Well perhaps they'll only see thriving businesses like Dollar General in history books one day too.

Tariff Troubles? A Mere Breeze for This Hardy Specimen

The economic winds have been turbulent haven't they? Trump's tariffs a bit like a sudden frost initially sent shivers through the market. Stocks plunged but Dollar General stood firm a bit like an old tortoise. Analysts tell us that only a tiny fraction of its purchases are imports making it less exposed than others. It's a bit like a chameleon adapting to its surroundings. They say that historically such stores do better in weaker economic conditions especially if we are heading into a recession. "It is not the strongest of the species that survives nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change." Indeed Darwin would be proud.

From Wall Street Underdog to Retail Royalty?

It hasn't always been rosy for our Dollar General. A disappointing earnings report last August sent its stock tumbling a bit like a clumsy penguin on an icy slope. They are still clawing their way back from that rather undignified stumble. But the return of CEO Todd Vasos seems to have sparked a bit of a revival. A focus on productivity like a well oiled machine has contributed to their recent fortunes so it seems. And as I say time and time again 'People must feel that the natural world is important and valuable and beautiful and wonderful and an amazement and a pleasure.' Perhaps Dollar General is also all those things to the savvy investor hmm?

The Gorilla in the Room: Walmart's E Commerce Ambitions

Of course our plucky Dollar General faces formidable foes. The retail landscape is dominated by giants such as Walmart Amazon and Costco they are like a herd of elephants. And Walmart with its growing e commerce business is the '800 pound gorilla,' as some have put it. This is a world of constant battles and 'never has there been a more important moment to understand the natural world. We all depend on it.' It is like the ant and the elephant David!

Clouds on the Horizon: Tariff Twists and SNAP Changes

However the future is not without its uncertainties. What if Trump's tariff pause expires without a trade deal? What if there are changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program? These could place extra pressure on Dollar General's lower income customer base. It's a bit like a predator stalking its prey a never ending cycle. 'Cherish the natural world because you're a part of it and you depend on it.' We all are.

A Delicate Balance: Demand vs. Ability

Analysts tell us that while demand remains strong the ability of its core customers to fulfill that demand is not as strong. A delicate balance indeed! It's a bit like watching a tightrope walker; one wrong step and... well you get the picture. But they say 'It seems to me that the natural world is the greatest source of excitement; the greatest source of visual beauty; the greatest source of intellectual interest. It is the greatest source of so much in life that makes life worth living.' But I do wonder 'How could I look at these delicate magnificent creatures and not wonder how long the natural world can survive our presence?'