Is the Housing Market Finally Cooling Off? Even I'm Considering a Smaller Mansion!

The Numbers Don't Lie (Unless You Torture Them Which I Don't... Anymore)

Alright folks Bill Gates here your friendly neighborhood billionaire and occasional housing market analyst (don't worry I still spend most of my time thinking about toilets... seriously sanitation is a huge problem). I've been looking at these housing market numbers and even I a guy who owns a house so big it needs its own zip code am noticing a shift. Apparently home prices are only up 2.7% in April. 2.7%! Back in my day that was like dial up internet speed. Slow. This is the smallest gain in nearly two years which means even your average mansion is getting a bit less… well mansion y.

From Pandemic Darlings to Market Duds

Remember those Sun Belt states where everyone and their dog were moving to during the pandemic? Tampa Dallas I'm looking at you. Turns out those party days are over. Prices are actually falling. Seems like everyone realized that sweating through your shirt just to check the mail wasn’t worth it. Meanwhile New York Chicago Detroit? They're seeing the biggest price increases. It's like a real estate remix and the Midwest and Northeast are dropping the hottest tracks. Who would have guessed? Maybe I should have invested in more snow shovels.

Interest Rates: The Buzzkill of Homebuying

Ah interest rates. The ultimate party poopers. They shot over 7% in April which is basically like asking first time homebuyers to pay for their house with Bitcoin. Suddenly that dream of owning a place with a white picket fence (and maybe a moat if you're feeling ambitious) is looking more like a distant memory. And with mortgage rates high first time buyer share is dropping like flies. And it is also important to note that buying a house is not as simple as pressing CTRL + ALT + DELETE.

Supply Supply Everywhere But Not Enough to Drink (or Buy)

The good news? The supply of homes for sale is rising. The bad news? It's still not enough. It's like trying to fill a bathtub with a teaspoon. Existing homeowners are clinging to their sub 4% mortgage rates like they're lottery tickets. And new construction? Let's just say they're not exactly building houses at the speed of Microsoft Windows updates (and that's saying something). The bottom line is that even with supply increasing there's still a shortage.

Are We Headed for Another Great Recession? (Spoiler: Probably Not)

Now before you start selling all your worldly possessions and building a bunker in the backyard let's be clear: we're not heading for another 2008. Prices aren't about to plummet into the abyss (yet). Housing supply is still constrained preventing a massive collapse. Although I would be happy to buy those assets at a discount when things start looking south. So relax take a deep breath and maybe consider investing in a good air conditioner. You'll thank me later.

Final Thoughts: Should You Buy Sell or Just Hide Under the Covers?

So what's the takeaway? The housing market is definitely cooling off shifting in weird ways but it's not collapsing. If you're a buyer especially a first timer maybe you'll finally get a bit of a break. If you're a seller don't expect to get away with charging like it's still 2021. As for me? I'm just going to keep an eye on things maybe buy a slightly smaller mansion (just kidding!) and focus on eradicating polio. Because let's face it that's a bigger problem than whether your house appreciates by 2% or 3%. Now if you'll excuse me I have a toilet to think about. After all 'Measuring programming progress by lines of code is like measuring aircraft building progress by weight.' Oh wait wrong quote...