¡Ay, Dios Mío! Will Tariffs Score an Own Goal on the US Economy?

Slok Talk: A 'Golazo' of Bad News?

Hola amigos! Leo Messi here and let me tell you even I'm getting a headache trying to understand all this economic stuff. But when someone starts talking about a 'recession,' even I know that's not a good 'golazo.' This Torsten Slok guy the chief economist at Apollo Global Management (sounds fancy!) is saying that if these tariffs stay where they are the US is going down faster than I can dribble past a defender. And let me tell you I am fast! It's like when they call a penalty against you even when you are sure that you dribbled past the defender cleanly – you just feel helpless. He's basically saying a recession is as certain as me scoring a free kick from just outside the box... almost. You know sometimes even *I* miss one.

Trump's Tariff Tango: A 90 Day Faint Hope?

Apparently President Trump gave a 90 day breather on some tariffs but cranked others up to 145% on China. ¡Madre mía! That's like giving the other team a penalty and then adding a free kick right after. Slok thinks these China tariffs are especially bad for small businesses. It's like trying to play a whole season with one bad ankle – you can try but it's going to hurt and probably won't end well. He says these businesses might not have enough cash to pay this extra tax on imported goods. I can relate. Sometimes even *I* feel like the taxman is coming after me! 'They basically do not have money and cash to pay 145% extra,' Slok said. So we will have bankruptcies of retailers of very significant magnitudes if this is allowed to continue.' Seems like a penalty too far for me!

Small Businesses: The Underdogs Face Planting?

This is where it really hits home for a guy like me. Small businesses are the heart of the economy like the fans are the heart of the team. Slok says they make up 80% of total employment. If they suffer it’s like losing half my teammates! It's like when my teammates are having a bad day I'm like 'C'mon we can do this! Keep fighting!' But if these tariffs keep hurting them it could damage the labor market and consumer sentiment like when the fans lose faith in you. It's never a good feeling you know? Even the great Messi feels the pressure sometimes!

Jobless Claims: The Canary in the Economic Coal Mine

Slok says we need to watch the weekly jobless claims reports. That's where we'll see if the job market is weakening like watching the goalie's eyes to know where to aim my shot. He says we haven't seen the impact of tariffs on those claims yet but we should expect to see it. It's like waiting for the other team to make a mistake – you know it's coming you just have to be ready to pounce! It is always about opportunities.

Wall Street's Worries: A Whole Team of Economists Freaking Out?

Apparently other folks on Wall Street are starting to worry too but these frequent tariff changes make it hard to predict anything. This JPMorgan Asset Management guy David Kelly says there's a 60% chance of a recession depending on whether these high tariffs stay put. It's like trying to win a game when the rules keep changing every five minutes. You just have to adjust to the game and do your best!

CNBC Pro LIVE: Score Some Knowledge at the NYSE!

Okay enough doom and gloom! CNBC is hosting this CNBC Pro LIVE event at the New York Stock Exchange on June 12. Apparently they want to give you all the ins and outs. If you want to understand this economic ‘offside trap’ maybe you should grab a ticket. I will stick to football and maybe think about investments later. Now back to scoring goals! Remember what I always say: 'You have to fight to reach your dream. You have to sacrifice and work hard for it.' And hopefully avoid any economic recessions along the way!