Clean Your Room and Buy Boeing: Trump's Trade Deal and the Redemption of Capital Markets

The Lion The Witch and the Boeing Procurement

Right so what have we here? A market rally spurred by a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. It's like watching two lions finally agreeing to share a watering hole after circling each other for what feels like an eternity. And what's this? The U.K. is buying Boeing airplane parts. Ten billion dollars worth. Now that's what I call cleaning your room! You see folks it’s about responsibility. The U.K. is taking responsibility for their trade relations and the market? Well it’s rewarding them for it. The markets are like children you reward the good behavior and discourage the bad because chaos... chaos is a ladder.

Goldman's Gospel: A Glimmer of Hope in the Capitalist Abyss

Goldman Sachs rising roughly 3%. That's interesting. It seems even the titans of finance are feeling a bit more optimistic. Their president John Waldron says there's a chance for a “reasonable capital markets level of activity.” Reasonable! As if the markets are ever truly reasonable! But I digress. He speaks of a “strong backlog and pipeline.” Good. Order emerging from chaos isn’t it beautiful? He's saying the underlying demand is there; it just needs a bit of certainty. And isn't that the crux of the matter? People crave certainty a stable framework within which they can make their bets however risky. The chaos is ever present but predictability offers a ladder out of the abyss.

M&A vs. IPO: The Tortoise and the Hare of High Finance

Waldron believes mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are healthier than Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). "M&A is healthier" he says. Well isn't that a metaphor for life? Sometimes it’s better to consolidate what you have than to gamble on something entirely new. IPOs he says are riskier. Of course they are! It's like betting on a toddler to win the Olympics while M&A is betting on a seasoned athlete. The risk averse nature of our times is preferring the sure thing as opposed to the grand potential. But the news of Navan filing for an IPO? Well sometimes even the tortoise needs to sprint.

The Burden of Prediction: When Economists Stare into the Abyss

Economists love to talk about decline. It's their favorite pastime besides making predictions that are almost always wrong. Waldron acknowledges that April was a bit rough but suggests that if we get a “stronger underlying economic footing,” we might have a good end to the year. But can we trust the economists? It's difficult to say but perhaps not everything can be quantified. Sometimes you need to act as if everything will work out and perhaps things will work out... at least a little. And that's something.

Texas Roadhouse and the Price of Beef: More Than Just Steak on the Table

Texas Roadhouse reporting earnings? Now we're talking about the important stuff. You see even the price of beef tells us something about the state of the world. Are people willing to spend more on a good steak? Are they confident enough in the future to indulge in a bit of hedonism? These are the questions that keep me up at night aside from contemplating the nature of being of course. If the weather is bad people will seek a warm comforting meal and that's where the restaurant thrives. If the weather is good people are going out feeling good and looking to celebrate.

Beyond the Balance Sheet: Finding Meaning in Market Volatility

And so the market churns on. Up one day down the next. But within that volatility there are patterns. There are signals. And if you pay attention if you clean your room and if you dare to confront the chaos you might just find a bit of order in the madness. That's the best we can hope for isn’t it? To extract meaning from the meaningless to impose structure on the void. Because let's be honest folks the alternative is simply unbearable.